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Japan Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 58
Japan Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japan's oil and gas industry.
The latest Japan Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 14.14% of Asia Pacific regional oil demand by 2014, while not contributing significantly to regional supply. Asia Pacific regional oil use of 21.40mn b/d in 2001 reached an estimated 25.44mn b/d in 2009. It should average 25.93mn b/d in 2010, then rise to around 28.99mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was just under 8.41mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 8.50mn b/d in 2009. It is set to increase to 8.59mn b/d by 2014. In 2001, the region was importing an average 12.99mn b/d of oil. This total had risen to an estimated 16.94mn b/d in 2009, and is forecast to reach 20.41mn b/d by 2014. The principal importers will be China, Japan, India and South Korea. By 2014, the only net exporter will be Malaysia In terms of natural gas, in 2009 the region consumed an estimated 459bn cubic metres (bcm) and demand of 582bcm is targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 378bcm in 2009 should reach 509bcm in 2014, but implies net imports easing from an estimated 81bcm in 2009 to 73bcm in 2013. This is in spite of many Asian gas producers being major exporters. Japan’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 20.16%, while it provides no meaningful share of production. By 2014, it is expected to be consuming 17.38% of the region’s gas.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. For 2009, the authors assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%.
The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level.
Japanese real GDP is estimated to have shrunk by 5.5% in 2009, against estimated contraction of 0.7% in 2008. We foresee average annual growth of 1.8% in 2010-2014. There is little domestic upstream activity, with local state and private firms concentrating on international exploration efforts. The outlook for domestic oil and gas production therefore remains poor. Oil consumption is forecast to fall between 2009 and 2014, implying demand of 4.10mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The country should also be consuming 101bcm of gas by 2014, all of which will be imported in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a reduction in Japanese oil consumption of 5.59%, with demand slipping steadily to the end of the period and the country using 4.05mn b/d by 2019. Gas consumption is expected to rise from an estimated 92.5bcm in 2009 to a possible 106.3bcm by 2019. All of Japan’s gas will continue to be imported in the form of LNG. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found to the rear of this report, which provides regional and country-specific projections.
Japan now ranks equal 10th alongside Hong Kong and Singapore in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating, thanks to a virtual absence of hydrocarbon resources. The score reflects the limited involvement of the government in upstream oil activities and an exceptionally healthy country risk profile, which counter the lack of reserves and output growth potential. The country now ranks third in the updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its high levels of oil and gas consumption, increasing gas demand and the established modern refining capability. However, it is held back by a high level of retail site intensity and a poor oil demand growth outlook. It is just one point ahead of Australia and Singapore.
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