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India Tourism Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 58
The India Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's tourism industry.
On Course For Dismal Full-Year 2009 Data released by India’s Ministry of Tourism in October 2009 show a depressing performance in the first three quarters of the year. In the first nine months, tourist arrivals totalled 3.57mn, a decline of 7.7% year on- year (y-o-y). This was a marginal improvement over the January-August decline of 8.0%. Although arrivals fell on an annual basis in September 2009, it was by 4.1%, below the year’s overall trend.
Arrivals growth picked up briefly in June and July 2009, recording minimal growth, as the Western summer holiday season encouraged a recovery in arrivals. However, with the rainy season beginning in July, arrivals then fell by 8.6% y-o-y in August. We expect this renewed downturn in tourist arrivals to have lasted until at least the end of the rainy season in November, before picking up again around the Christmas holiday season. As such, we maintain our negative outlook for full-year arrivals in 2009, with a forecast of 4.9mn (-11% y-o-y). This should recover in 2010, with the Commonwealth Games in October providing an extra fillip to growth.
Hotel Prices Decline In Downturn India’s hotel industry is suffering from the downturn in tourist arrivals. Previously, India had particularly high room rates, making it uncompetitive in the region. High-end hotels were charging up to US$400 per night in New Delhi prior to the downturn in 2008. However, the slowdown in tourist arrivals, alongside the increase in rooms from new hotel construction ahead of the 2010 Commonwealth Games, is encouraging a downturn in prices. For instance, some hotel chains offered discounts of 30-40% in the first half of 2009, often with further discounts on offer for longer stays. A survey in India found that the average rate for a five-star room in Delhi is US$215, while a similar room in Mumbai costs US$235, well below published rates. Although this is negative in the short term for hotel profits, in the medium term it will help make the Indian tourist industry more competitive and attract returning-tourist inflows once the global economy picks up again.
Indian Aviation Industry Suffers India’s aviation industry is set to experience losses in 2009, with the performance of the sector dragged down by the national carrier Air India in particular. In October, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) director general, Giovanni Bisignani, warned that the Indian industry is forecast to post losses of US$1.5bn in 2009. This follows a downturn in international and domestic tourist arrivals, putting pressure on airline profits. The number of aircraft purchased by Indian airlines fell by 20% y-o-y in the first nine months of 2009, indicating that airlines are scaling back purchases and even returning leased aircraft during the downturn.
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