Zambia - Telecoms, Mobile and Broadband

Paul Budde Communication Pty Ltd, February 2010, Pages: 35

Executive summary
Zambia’s GDP growth has remained almost unaffected by the global economic crisis. After briefly dipping to 4.5% in 2009 it is expected to return to the level of between 5% and 6% p.a. from 2010 which it has enjoyed consistently over the past six years.
The country’s telecommunications market is dominated by mobile network operator Zain (formerly Celtel) which has a market share of almost 75%. However, the fastest subscriber growth is currently seen by the runner-up, MTN (formerly Telecel) from South Africa. The average revenue per user (ARPU) on the other hand has dropped sharply in 2009 after it had already reversed its long-term downtrend in 2008.
The third competitor in the mobile market is Cell Z, the mobile division of the national telco, Zamtel. Zamtel has been performing poorly in the mobile as well as the fixed-line sector, despite monopoly rights in the latter, including the international gateway. This has also limited growth in the Internet and broadband sector, with some of the highest prices for international bandwidth on the continent.
The monopoly on the international gateway and restrictions on VoIP Internet telephony are set to fall under the new ICT Act of 2009, which will make international calls and borderless international roaming much more attractive. The Act will also establish a new unified licensing regime which will enable more competition in all market sectors from existing and new players. With penetration rates in all sectors still below regional averages, the growth prospects are excellent.
Since 2009 mobile handsets are being manufactured in Zambia for the domestic market as well as export.
A majority stake in Zamtel is up for privatisation in the first half of 2010. One of its key assets is a national fibre network that is currently being rolled out, including connections to neighbouring countries which will provide transit links to international submarine fibre optic cables off the African east and west coasts. However, alternative domestic fibre is already being rolled out by three other companies, and one of them has recently completed the country’s first ever connection to an international submarine fibre optic cable, SAT-3/WASC.
Alternative international fibre links will go live in 2010 and 2011, reducing the dependency on a single provider, which will first and foremost benefit the broadband sector with cheaper international bandwidth. Zamtel’s expensive ADSL service is still dominating this sector, albeit at a very low level. Competition exists from several ISPs which have rolled out WiMAX wireless broadband networks.
Mobile data services using GPRS and EDGE are available but have remained expensive under the current conditions. Third generation technology rollouts are in progress, including 3.5G HSPA.
Key highlights:

Market analysis 2010;
2010 estimates for mobile and Internet market;
Benchmarking with other countries in the region in terms of GDP, mobile, fixed and Internet market penetration;
Liberalisation of VoIP and international gateways under new ICT Act;
Profiles of major players in all market sectors;
Zamtel to be privatised in 2010;
New converged licensing regime to enable more competition in all market sectors;
First ever connection to international submarine fibre made;
Additional cross-border and international submarine fibre links in 2010;
Competitive national fibre backbone rollouts;
ADSL vs. WiMAX broadband market share;
Broadband and mobile data pricing trends 2008-2009;
Zain Zambia key performance indicators 2004-2008;
Mobile ARPU 2005-2009, Zain versus MTN.Mobile penetration in Zambia and other countries in the region - June 2009
CountryMobile penetration
Botswana105%
Namibia70%
Angola45%
Tanzania33%
Zambia33%
Mozambique22%
Zimbabwe18%
Malawi16%
DRC14%
(Source: BuddeComm based on various sources)
This annual report provides a comprehensive overview of trends and developments in Zambia’s telecommunications market. Subjects covered include:

Key statistics;
Market and industry overviews;
The impact of the global economic crisis;
Regulatory environment and structural reform;
Major players (fixed, mobile and broadband);
Infrastructure development;
Mobile voice and data markets;
Average Revenue per User (ARPU);
Internet and broadband development and pricing;
Convergence (voice/data, fixed/wireless/mobile).For those needing high level strategic information and objective analysis on the telecommunications sector in Zambia, this report is essential reading and gives further information on:

The impact of access to international submarine fibre for a landlocked country;
Government policies affecting the telecoms industry;
Market liberalisation and regulatory issues;
The impact of the global economic crisis;
Telecoms operators - privatisation, IPOs, acquisitions, new licences;
Internet and broadband development, including 3G mobile;
Broadband and mobile data services and pricing trends;
Mobile Average Revenue per User (ARPU).

1. Executive summary
2. Key statistics
2.1 Country overview
3. Telecommunications market
3.1 Market analysis 2010
3.2 Regional benchmarking
4. Regulatory environment
4.1 Telecommunications Act 1994
4.2 ICT Policy 2007
4.3 New ICT Bill 2009
4.4 Regulatory authority
4.4.1 CAZ, ZICTA
4.5 Telecom sector liberalisation in Zambia
4.5.1 International gateways
4.6 Licensing
4.6.1 New unified licensing regime 2009
4.7 Universal access fund
4.8 Infrastructure sharing
4.9 Cyber security legislation
5. Fixed network operators in Zambia
5.1 Zamtel
5.1.1 Privatisation
5.1.2 Fixed network infrastructure
5.1.3 Fixed-line statistics
5.1.4 CDMA2000 Wireless Local Loop (WLL)
5.1.5 Domestic satellite network
5.1.6 National fibre backbone
5.2 Other operators
6. International infrastructure
6.1 Overview
6.2 Submarine fibre
7. Internet market
7.1 Overview
7.1.1 Internet statistics
7.2 Public Internet access locations
7.2.1 Community telecentres
7.3 Zambia’s ISP market
7.3.1 ZamNet
7.3.2 Zamtel Online
7.3.3 CopperNet Solutions
7.3.4 UUNet Zambia
7.3.5 Microlink Technologies
7.3.6 AfriConnect
8. Broadband market
8.1 Overview
8.2 Asymmetrical Digital Subscriber Line (ADSL)
8.3 Leased lines
8.4 WiMAX
8.5 WiFi
9. Convergence
9.1 Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP)
9.2 E-learning
10. Mobile communications
10.1 Overview of Zambia’s mobile market
10.1.1 Mobile statistics
10.2 Major mobile operators
10.2.1 Zain Zambia (formerly Celtel, Zamcell)
10.2.2 MTN Zambia (formerly Telecel)
10.2.3 Cell Z (Zamtel)
10.3 Average Revenue per User (ARPU)
10.4 Mobile data services
10.5 Third generation (3G)
10.6 Mobile content and applications
10.6.1 M-payment and m-banking
10.7 Local handset manufacturing
10.8 Satellite mobile
11. Related reports
Table 1 - Country statistics Zambia - 2010
Table 2 - Fixed-line network statistics - 2010
Table 3 - Internet provider statistics - 2010
Table 4 - Internet user statistics - 2010
Table 5 - Mobile statistics - 2010
Table 6 - National telecommunications authority
Table 7 - GDP per capita in Zambia and other countries in the region - 2009
Table 8 - Mobile penetration in Zambia and other countries in the region - June 2009
Table 9 - Internet user penetration in Zambia and other countries in the region - 2008
Table 10 - Fixed-line penetration in Zambia and other countries in the region - 2008
Table 11 - Fixed lines in service and teledensity - 1995 - 2010
Table 12 - Internet users and penetration rate - 1995 - 2010
Table 13 - Zamtel DSL pricing - 2009
Table 14 - Mobile subscribers and penetration rate - 1995 - 2010
Table 15 - Mobile operators, subscribers and annual change - September 2009
Table 16 - Mobile ARPU in Zambia - Zain/Celtel, MTN - 2005 - 2009
Table 17 - Zain Zambia prepaid mobile data pricing - 2009
Exhibit 1 - Map of Zambia
Exhibit 2 - Vodacom’s in and out of Zambia
Exhibit 3 - Zain Zambia key performance indicators, part one - 2004 - 2008
Exhibit 4 - Zain Zambia key performance indicators, part two - 2004 - 2008
Exhibit 5 - Zain Zambia coverage map - 2009

- Zain Zambia (formerly Celtel, Zamcell)
- MTN Zambia (formerly Telecel)
- Cell Z (Zamtel)

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