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Russia Agribusiness Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 56
Business Monitor International's Russia Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Russia's agribusiness service.
The establishment of the United Grain Company (UGC) is a key part of Russia's strategy to recover its status as an agricultural powerhouse, following the market reforms of the 1990s that resulted in large cuts to key industries. The country aims to increase its grain exports to 50mn tonnes per year by 2020. The UGC, yet to begin activities, is set to increase the purchasing and selling of grain on the domestic market, increase grain exports and modernise and construct new port terminals and storage silos. This and other factors have led BMI to forecast 16.5% growth in wheat production and 49% growth in corn production from 2009 to 2014 in the Russia Agribusiness Q110 report.
the publisher has updated their rice outlook to reflect milled production, rather than rough production as in previous BMI Russia reports. The change will allow us to use the latest figures available, as well as bring the Russia report in line with those for other markets. Rice production is likely to fluctuate throughout the forecast period but the general trend will be upwards.
Meanwhile, meat consumption in Russia remains low by developed world standards. In 2008 according to data from the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) per capita consumption of beef and chicken stood at 16.6kg and 19.8kg, less than half of that of the US. This leaves plenty of room for growth and, in common with many other emerging markets, the publisher expect meat consumption in Russia to increase significantly over their forecast period to 2014.
The Russian government has stated its aim to become self-sufficient in pork and poultry by 2011. The goal is over-ambitious in BMI's view, but the publisher nevertheless sees poultry production continuing to grow strongly to the end of their forecast period in 2014, building on the 170% expansion seen from 2003-2007.
Anti-import measures, state and regional government subsidies, as well as demand for cheaper animal protein have all boosted poultry production. Between 2009 and 2014 the publisher forecasts production to rise by 83% from 1.81mn tonnes to 3.31mn.
The publisher sees milk production rising by 10.0% from 2009 to reach 36.1mn tonnes in 2014. While still a far cry from the levels of the first couple of years of the 1990s, this modest growth forecast does at least inspire hope that the industry is starting on the long road to recovery. In October 2009, the Russian government added fluid milk, butter and three types of cheeses to a list of intervention commodities. While no interventions have yet taken place on these commodities, the possibility adds a new dynamic to the dairy industry. This and other key issues are discussed at more length in Russia Agribusiness Q110.
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