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Italy Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 73
The proprietary Drug Expenditure Forecast Model reveals that the Italian pharmaceutical market, one of the largest globally, will increase in value in 2009 (in local currency terms), after declining the previous year. During 2008, over-the-counter (OTC) and prescription medicine sales were EUR18.87bn (US$27.75bn), down from EUR19.06bn (US$26.10bn) in 2007. In 2009, it is expected that drug sales will increase by 0.5% to reach EUR18.97bn. However, in US dollar terms, as a result of the weakening of the euro, drug sales will experience a 3.75% decline, to reach US$26.71bn. By 2014, BMI calculates that Italy’s pharmaceutical market will be worth EUR20.05bn (US$25.06bn), equating to a 1.12% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in local currency terms and -1.27% growth in US dollar terms. Our extended 10-year forecast model projects that drug expenditure will reach EUR22.74bn (US$28.42bn) by 2019, representing a 2009-2019 CAGR of 1.83% in local currency terms and 0.62% in US dollar terms.
Pharmaceutical spending by the Italian National Health Service – the Servicio Sanitario Nazionale (SSN) – increased by 0.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the first half of 2009, according to the Association of Italian Pharmacists (Federfarma). Additionally, medicine prescriptions increased by 2.8% in H109 compared with H108. With state cost-containment measures restricting growth and limiting prospects for innovative drugmakers, BMI believes that, although marginal, the H109 figures will be welcomed by drugmakers. Nevertheless, the market for prescriptions, and particularly patented pharmaceuticals, looks relatively bleak. From a relatively low base share, we expect the use of generic medicines to proliferate over the coming years as a focus on cost-containment and patient confidence in non-originators increase. Meanwhile, in August 2009, it was revealed that Italy’s pharmaceutical industry association, Farmindustria, had set up a pharmaceutical contract manufacturers group to represent 11 of the largest companies active in the sector. BMI welcomes the development as we believe that establishing a strong local contract manufacturing sector is important as this will (in addition to the country’s to adherence to Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP)) work towards increasing Italy’s attractiveness as a location for the production of drugs, keeping companies from outsourcing their manufacturing to countries such as India and China that are becoming increasingly alluring to multinational drugmakers.
In company news, drugmaker Recordati’s consolidated revenues for the first nine months of 2009 were US$824.1mn, a 9.4% y-o-y increase, of which pharmaceutical sales increased by 10.4% y-o-y to reach US$793.4mn. The analyst believes that the drug company will be pleased with its 9M09 financial performance as the majority of its markets are based in Europe, a region that has been significantly affected by the economic downturn. Consolidated revenues for 2008 reached US$1,023mn, of which pharmaceutical sales contributed US$977mn, a 4.7% increase on revenues of EUR933mn achieved the previous year.
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