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Algeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 62
In the Q110 Business Environment Ratings matrix for the 17 key countries of the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region, Algeria remains in a lowly 14th position. Globally, the country is among the bottom ten markets of the 71 surveyed by BMI, despite the considerable longer-term opportunities provided by the large and rapidly growing population and healthcare modernisation initiatives. Currently, however, restrictive import policies, low per-capita spending and regulatory shortcomings, including deficiencies of its intellectual property (IP) regime, will continue to sideline multinationals’ presence in the country and hamper progress towards World Trade Organization (WTO) membership.
Despite protectionist measures favouring the local pharmaceutical industry, domestic producers presently meet only around a third of total demand. Nevertheless, from the start of 2009, measures have been put introduced to prevent imports of medicines that can be produced locally, meaning that – although the restriction is often flaunted – there is a danger that the country will experience shortages of certain medicines. In August 2009, the Central Pharmacy Hospital (CPH) – one of the three leading domestic supplies, denied that there are medicine shortages in the country despite several news reports to the contrary. There have been drug shortages in the past and despite various amendments to impose rational import tariffs on medicines, it seems unlikely that the government will have accounted for possible shortages as it is actively trying to encourage local production.
Algeria’s pharmaceutical expenditure, worth around DZD159.98bn (US$2.35bn) in 2008, is projected to reach DZD231.03bn (US$3.30bn) in 2014, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.68% in local currency terms. The five-year growth rate is expected to be virtually identical when expressed in US dollars given the forecast stability in the exchange rate. Over our longer, 10-year forecast to 2019, pharmaceutical spending is expected to grow at a CAGR of over 12% in local currency terms, illustrating our belief in the longer-term potential of the market. In fact, Algeria has surfaced as one of the most promising emerging regional pharmaceutical markets in recent decades, despite the government’s biased stance towards the local pharmaceutical industry.
The lower energy prices in the course of 2009 will also have an important role in shaping Algeria’s healthcare and pharmaceutical policies, given that hydrocarbons account for around 97% of Algeria’s goods exports and that social security represents some 60% of the country’s healthcare expenditure. Nevertheless, the authorities are committed to the expansion of the number of hospital beds in the country over the coming decade. The targets over the next year should be achievable, as the country’s current account surplus remains substantial and 2009 GDP growth (expected at 2.9%) surpasses a poor 2008 showing, posting a marginal increase of 0.8%.
The Algeria Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Algeria's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
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