Investing in the Tunisian Telecoms Market
Onda Analytics Limited, December 2009, Pages: 37
In June 2009, a consortium headed by France Telecom was awarded a licence to operate the second fixed and third mobile network in Tunisia, including one year exclusivity on 3G services. A launch is expected in early 2010 and will alter the competitive dynamics of the Tunisian telecoms market, with the entrance of a strong new player. The incumbent, Tunisie Telecom, is likely to suffer most, given that the new entrant will be present in fixed line, broadband and mobile markets.
As a result, Tunisie Telecom must pursue measures to defend its current market position. It is currently 65% owned by the Tunisian government and 35% owned by EIT, a holding company for telecoms assets owned by Dubai Holding. While EIT holds other telecoms assets, it is principally a financial investor. Given the changes to the competitive environment in Tunisia and having held the investment for a number of years, the authors believe it may be willing to listen to offers for the stake from operators able to derive more value due to past experience in defending against new entrants.
This report aims to look at the potential for investing in the Tunisian telecoms market. It considers the state of the market at the moment and recent trends in both the telecoms market and socioeconomic environment. It then provides forecasts for the Tunisian market, splitting out market shares for Tunisie Telecom, Tunisiana and France Telecom. It also outlines strategic actions that will enable Tunisie Telecom to defend its position against the new entrant.
Key questions answered:
- How is Tunisie Telecom positioned in the Tunisian market?
- What is the current competitive landscape in Tunisia and how is it set to alter?
- What strategies is the new entrant likely to deploy upon entry into the market and how can they best be defended against?
- How will the Tunisian telecoms market develop over the next ten years?
- What will happen to the revenue of existing players with the entrance of a new competitor?
- What areas are key to growth in the Tunisian telecoms market?
Key data:
- Socio-economic indicators for Tunisia
- Historical fixed, mobile and broadband subscribers and penetration in Tunisia
- Mobile subscribers and penetration forecasts for Tunisia, split by operator, 2009 - 2018
- Mobile ARPU forecasts for Tunisia, split by operator, 2009 - 2018
- Forecast total mobile revenue in Tunisia, 2009 - 2018
- Fixed line and broadband penetration forecasts, 2009-2018
Countries Covered:
- Tunisia
- Algeria
- Egypt
- Jordan
- Morocco
- Syria
- Serbia
- Belarus
- Turkey
- Romania
- Bulgaria
*Report comes in Powerpoint plus Excel annex
Executive Summary
- Outline of the environment for investment in the Tunisia telecoms market
- Entry of France Telecom into Tunisian telecoms market
- Defensive strategy need by incumbent operator, Tunisie Telecom
Market Background
- outline of opportunity
- demographic detail: population, economy
- Tunisian fixed line market overview
- Tunisian mobile market overview, by operator
- Tunisian broadband market overview
Market and Opportunity Analysis
- Mobile penetration analysis, for similar GDP countries
- Mobile penetration evolution by country – at Tunisian mobile penetration
- Tunisian mobile subscriber forecasts, by operator 2009-18
- Penetration and ARPU growth paths, regional analysis
- Tunisian blended mobile ARPU forecasts 2009-18
- Tunisian mobile ARPU forecast, by operator 2009-18
- Mobile revenue forecast, by operator 2009-18
- Tunisian fixed connections forecast, 2009-18
- Tunisian fixed broadband connections forecast, 2009-18
- Defending against a new entrant – strategy review
Key Findings
- Key issues for potential investors
- Actions for potential investors
- Tunisie Telecom
- Tunisiana
- France Telecom
- Divona
- Planet Tunisie
- EIT
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