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just-auto’s Car Markets Outlook – Forecasts to 2012
just-auto, Jan 2010, Pages: 41
Wherever you look in the world’s automotive industry, firms are experiencing very tough times. The sharp global economic reversal that took hold in the fourth quarter of 2008 and continued in 2009 is reshaping the global auto industry. Indeed, the scale of the downturn in automotive markets and the impact on vehicle and parts producers, coming after a period of prolonged boom, is unprecedented.
Developed countries bore the brunt of 2009’s sharp economic decline, with North America, Western Europe and Japan seeing major contractions to vehicle demand.
There are hopeful signs that some of the worst hit economies moved out of recession in the second half of 2009, but the outlook for 2010 is clouded by high unemployment and low consumer confidence.
This is just-auto's latest analysis of the global car market with forecasts to 2012. The purpose of this report is to provide a review of the latest major developments in automotive markets alongside an assessment of prospects. As the industry enters a new decade, there is at least a growing conviction that the worst of the uncertainties that governed the first half of 2009 are behind us.
Author and editor of just-auto, David Leggett, provides his own analysis and predictions on the macro trends affecting the major markets around the world and the report draws on just-auto's contacts within the industry to provide additional viewpoints, consensus market predictions and conclusions.
Beginning with the executive summary, the report moves on to Chapter 1 Overview, where we outline the major forces behind the unprecendented industry downturn.
Chapter 2 Global economic overview
International economic institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) are more or less united in the suggestion that the current situation for the world’s economy, while not a happy one, could be worse and that the bottom may have been reached in mid-2009.
Here we discuss why we expect a slow recovery is in prospect, and what risks there may be to the global economy, Included is IMF's projections of the world economic outlook, 2007-2010.
Chapter 3 The US automotive market
The sharp collapse of the US light vehicle market in 2009 was caused by a dramatic reversal in US economic prospects ushered in with the financial crisis of late 2008 and a subsequent crash in business and consumer confidence.
This chapter predicts the short-term future of the market, with thoughts on the US economy coming out of recession, why the market bottom has been reached, the Clunkers ‘hangover’ giving way to a slow market recovery, the question of pent-up demand, and why manufacturer shares face volatility.
The chapter provides US light vehicle sales volume from 2005 to 2012.
Chapter 4 Europe
The European economic outlook is brightening alongside further improvements in financial conditions, fiscal stimulus measures and stabilisation of export demand. However, headwinds from financial sector deleveraging and rising unemployment suggest that the recovery will be gradual.
Here we look at the impact the scrappage boost will have when removed in 2010, how much ‘pull-forward’ and ‘payback’ there is from the schemes, how market saturation in mature markets constrains growth in medium-term, how the small car boost will go into reverse in 2010, Central Europe declining fast, European production stabilising, and whether there is capacity rationalisation ahead,
This chapter provides Western Europe car sales volume from 2006 to 2010.
Chapter 5 Japan
At the end of 2009, the severe recession in Japan triggered by the global economic crisis showed signs of bottoming out, thanks in part to a rebound in exports, although Japan’s industrial production remains well below capacity. This chapter outlines latest thinking on the short-term future of the market.
Chapters 6 to 10 analyse and outline the short-term future for the remaining major global markets including, Brazil, Russia, India, China, Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia.
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