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Bulgaria Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 48
The Bulgaria Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's retail industry.
The Q110 BMI Bulgaria Retail report predicts that the country’s total retail sales are expected to grow in local currency terms from an estimated BGN27.03bn (US$19.63bn) in 2009 to BGN36.78bn (US$19.15bn) by 2014. Key factors behind retail market expansion include rising disposable income and Bulgarians seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains. EU membership gained at the start of 2007 and a substantial amount of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast annual retail sales growth of 4.9% in local currency terms between 2009 and 2014.
Bulgaria’s nominal GDP in 2009 was US$38.65bn, with the decline of 5.3% expected to slow to 1.5% in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 0.9% is now by BMI between 2009 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 7.5mn in 2009 to an estimated 7.4mn by 2014, but GDP per capita should grow by an estimated 27.7% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$6,580. Consumer spending per capita is expected to increase from US$5,305 in 2009 to US$6,725 by 2014. The growth in the overall retail market will be driven in large part by a growing urban population with higher disposable incomes and an interest in aspirational purchasing. According to the UN Population Division, the urban population in Bulgaria is expected to grow from 70.5% of the total in 2005 to 72.2% by 2010, and to more than 78.0% by 2030. Meanwhile, consumer spending per capita of the middle 60% of the Bulgarian population is forecast by the World Bank to rise from US$1,225 in 2000 to US$5,941 in 2012.
Retail sectors that are likely to see substantial growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with BMI estimating that sales will rise by 42%, from an estimated US$1.11bn in 2009 to US$1.58bn before the end of the forecast period. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals sales are predicted to increase by 20%, from an estimated US$0.16bn in 2009 to US$0.20bn by the end of the forecast period.
Assuming an unchanged market share, BMI also estimates that furnishing sales will rise 36% over the forecast period. In 2008, the Austrian home improvement retailer BauMax opened the Bulgaria’s biggest DIY hypermarket in Plovdiv. According to press reports, the company plans to open 15 more outlets at a cost of more than EUR150mn (US$194mn) over the next five years. Automotives sales are predicted to increase from an estimated US$1.57bn in 2009 to US$2.14bn by the end of the forecast period.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,053bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,134bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland
together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Bulgaria, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.9% is expected to decline to 1.0% by 2014.
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