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Croatia Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 46
The Croatia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's retail industry.
The Q110 BMI Croatia Retail report predicts that the country’s total retail sales will rise by nearly 18% by 2014, growing from an estimated US$16.80bn in 2009 to US$19.76bn by 2014. Contributing to annual retail sales growth of 1.1% are higher disposable incomes, Croatians seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, easier access to credit and forthcoming EU accession. Croatia’s nominal GDP in 2009 was US$56.14bn, with growth of 1.1% forecast for 2010 following 2009’s estimated 5.1% decline. Average annual GDP growth of 1.5% is predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to remain static throughout the forecast period at 4.4mn, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by 25% by 2014, reaching US$15,790. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$3,952 in 2009 to US$4,487 by 2014.
The strong tourism industry in Croatia should continue to boost retail sales across all sectors. Croatia is the 18th most popular tourist destination in the world, with more than 10mn foreign tourists in 2006 generating revenues of US$10bn. The fall in tourism arrivals in February 2009, down by 8.0% year-onyear (y-o-y) following a 1.0% fall the previous month, was a result of key tourist groups from the eurozone tightening their belts rather than from any fundamental decline in Croatia’s popularity as a tourist destination and figures should recover as recessionary factors diminish. In terms of retail sub-sectors, spending on food, beverages, alcoholic drinks and tobacco fell between 2005 and 2007, as Croatians began to spend more on aspirational items such as clothing, footwear and furniture, according to figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
In 2007, data from the CBS’s Household Budget Survey: Household Consumption And Household Income 2005-2007, show that average annual personal consumption per household of food and beverages fell from 33.2% of personal consumption in 2005 to 31.6% in 2007, while consumption of alcoholic drinks and tobacco declined from 4.0% to 3.9%. Consumption of clothing and footwear, on the other hand, rose from 7.7% to 7.9% of personal consumption, while consumption of furniture increased from 5.1% to 5.4% from 2005 to 2007.
Using the above figures as a proxy, BMI estimates that the clothing and footwear sub-sector was worth US$1.33bn in 2009 and is likely to rise to US$1.57bn by the end of the forecast period. On the same basis, we estimate that furniture sales were worth US$0.91bn in 2009 and forecast an increase in value to US$1.07bn by 2014.
Other retail sectors that are likely to see steady growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals. BMI data suggest that OTC pharmaceutical sales amounted to an estimated US$0.12bn in 2009. We forecast that the value of the sector will increase by 27% to US$0.15bn before the end of the period.
Consumer electronics are forecast to grow from an estimated US$1.06bn in 2009 to US$1.32bn by the end of the forecast period, an increase of nearly 25%.
The retail sub-sector likely to see the greatest growth is automotives, with BMI predicting that sales will increase by 41% over the forecast period, from US$1.16bn in 2009 to US$1.70bn by 2014. The Croatian Chamber of Economy (CCE) says that 50% of Croatian customers do their shopping mostly by car, particularly when visiting cash-and-carry outlets and hypermarkets.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,053bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,134bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Croatia, the estimated 2009 market share of 1.6% is expected to decline to 1.0% by 2014.
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