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Poland Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Poland Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's retail industry.
The Q110 BMI Poland Retail report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by nearly 45% in US dollar terms by 2014, growing from an estimated US$191.80bn in 2009 to US$277.96bn. Rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking the choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains, and the increase in car ownership, are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership gained in 2004 and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have allowed retailers to make significant inroads into the market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 4.8%. Poland’s nominal GDP was US$430.23bn in 2009, down by 1.0% from the year before as the economy slowed. Average annual GDP growth of 3.5% is predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. Although the population is forecast to decrease slightly, from 38.0mn in 2009 to an estimated 37.9mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 48% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$16,798. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for it to increase from US$8,474 in 2009 to US$11,381 by 2014.
With 38mn people, Poland is the biggest market among the new EU countries. The population is also one of the most youthful in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with more than 37% of all citizens aged between 20 and 44, according to UN data. This proportion is forecast to rise to more than 38% by 2010, representing a key element of future retail spending.
In 2008, according to the Polish Central Statistical Office (Glówny Urzad Statystyczny, GUS), the biggest increase in sales, of 38.7%, came from retailers selling clothes and footwear. Retailers selling furniture, radio and television equipment and household appliances recorded an increase of 28.8%. Other groups with high sales were retailers of press and books (+20.9%), and of pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment (+15.8%).
This trend for increased spending on non-food, non-essential items is a reflection of the maturing of the Polish retail market as it begins to track more closely Western European purchasing trends. Teenagers and young adults in particular are driving fashion sales in Poland, with the clothing market worth US$12.72bn, 8.5% of the total retail market, in 2006 (the last year for which detailed breakdown figures are available), according to GUS.
Retail sub-sectors that are likely to see steady growth over the period include automotives, with BMI forecasting that sales will rise from an estimated US$6.07bn in 2009 to US$9.36bn in 2014, an increase of more than 54%. Consumer electronics sales are predicted to rise by more than 27%, from an estimated US$6.34bn in 2009 to US$8.06bn before the end of the forecast period. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow by 30%, from US$2.52bn in 2009 to US$3.27bn by 2014. Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,053bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,134bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Poland, the estimated 2009 market share of 18.2% is expected to fall to 14.0% by 2014.
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