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Venezuela Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 49
Venezuela Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's retail industry.
The Q110 Venezuela Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from about US$139bn in 2009 to more than US$156bn by 2014. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an expanding population, the rise in disposable income and easier access to consumer credit are key factors behind the forecast growth in Venezuela’s retail sales.
Venezuela’s nominal GDP was US$408.71bn in 2009, with 2009’s decline of 3.0% expected to worsen to a contraction of 4.2% in 2010 as the country continues to suffer the effects of a prolonged economic slowdown. Average annual GDP growth of just 0.7% is now predicted between 2009 and 2014.
With the population increasing from 28.8mn in 2009 to an estimated 31.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to fall by 6.4% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$13,273. We forecast consumer spending per capita to increase from US$7,184 in 2009 to US$10,751 by 2014.
Positive economic indicators include increasing urbanisation, with more than 88% of the population classified by the UN as urban in 2005. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 95%. In 2005, 63.8% of the Venezuelan population was described by the UN as ‘active’, with 37.7% in the crucial 20-44 age range. By 2015, the proportion in the 20-44 age band is predicted to be 38.6% and 65.5% of the population is expected to be active.
The report forecasts that organised retail sales will grow considerably faster than underlying retail sales over the period, with the organised retail sector likely to be worth US$73.62bn by 2014. This would take its share of the total retail market to 47.0%, up from 31.2% in 2009.
In terms of retail sub-sectors, food and drink sales are forecast to rise from US$16.88bn in 2009 to US$15.41bn by 2014. OTC pharmaceutical sales are predicted to grow from US$0.52bn in 2009 to US$0.59bn by 2014 (+14.3%), while automotive sales are forecast to fall by 1.6%, from US$1.37bn in 2009 to US$1.35bn by 2014. Consumer electronic sales are expected to show strong growth, rising from US$3.15bn in 2009 to US$4.04bn towards the end of the period (+28.4%).
Retail sales for our Latin American universe in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,216bn, based on varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on a macroeconomic database, was US$3,384bn. Mexico, Brazil and Argentina together accounted for an estimated 72.2% of regional retail sales in 2009. Their combined share is expected to rise to 73.9% by 2014. For Venezuela, the estimated 2009 market share of 11.4% is expected to fall to 7.5% by 2014.
Key Benefits of Report
- Benchmark Independent 5-year Retail Industry Forecasts for Venezuela to test other views – a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the Venezuelan Retail market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in Venezuela through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
- Exploit Latest Competitive Intelligence & Company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share and ownership structure – includes multi-national and national companies
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