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Portugal Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 57
Portugal Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Portugal's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The value of Portugal’s pharmaceutical market in 2008 was EUR3.61bn (US$5.31bn) and should grow to EUR4.2bn (US$5.3bn) in 2014 representing a CAGR of 2.63% in local currency terms. This report notes that as a result of the weakening euro, drug market expenditure in US dollar terms will experience much slower growth, with a CAGR of just 0.21% expected between 2009-2014.
The authors also calculates that pharmaceutical sales in Portugal will slow to EUR3.7bn (US$5.22bn) in 2009, equating to a -1.60% decline in drug market expenditure. Despite Portugal’s economy pulling out of recession in Q209, as reported by a Country Risk team, we believe that the recovery in Portugal will be slow and drawn out, which could impact both out-of-pocket expenditure and state investment in healthcare. The OTC sector will be most sensitive to a prolonged slump in consumer spending power, although it is also most likely to benefit most when the economy does return to strength. As a result, our near-term forecasts for the OTC sector envisage a CAGR of 2.46% between 2009 and 2014 in US dollar terms. However, between 2009-2014 we expect growth to reach 3.76%.
With the re-election of Socialist Prime Minister Jose Socrates in September 2009, it will be interesting to see what direction health policy takes in the coming years. In his first term in office a number of reforms were implemented in the health sector as well as other controversial areas such as pensions. However, in his second term he is likely to have a hostile parliament to contend with including, not least, the opposition communists and other leftwing parties dissatisfied with the Socialists. These elements would react strongly to any perceived threats to social benefits such as health. However, the authors believe that Socrates may have no choice but to make austerities. Although Portugal managed to keep its fiscal deficit under the Eurozone limit of 3% of GDP in 2007 and 2008, in 2009 it is likely to once again pass 5% – in 2006 the gap was 6.1%. Meanwhile, unemployment figures are at their highest for three decades. As a result, Socrates has pledged that the central focus of the government will be righting the economy and this could mean that issues such as health are put on the back-burner.
In June 2009, Associação Portuguesa da Indústria Farmacêutica (Portuguese Association of Pharmaceutical Industry, Apifarma) called for the government to set up a special court for intellectual property, in order to improve patent regulations in the country. By increasing the speed of the process and providing greater protection for intellectual property (IP) holders the new body could improve the competitiveness of Portugal’s pharmaceutical sector. If implemented, the authors would consider revising Portugal’s score for our Business Environment Rating for the Western European region. Presently, Portugal lies 8th out of the nine countries tracked.
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