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Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 77
Colombia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The Colombian pharmaceutical market is the fourth-largest in Latin America, a position that it is expected to consolidate over the forecast period. This report calculates that pharmaceutical sales in Colombia reached COP4,466bn (US$2.27bn) in 2008, representing impressive growth of 11.3% in local currency terms between 2007 and 2008 (compared with a -3.2% decline in the drug market between 2006 and 2007). However, our forecast for 2009 is more conservative (compared with the 2008 growth) and we calculate that the drug market will see growth of only 7.0%, reaching a value of COP4,778bn in 2009. The authors attribute the decline in Colombia’s pharmaceutical expenditure growth in 2009 to the economic downturn and the resultant drop in the country’s GDP growth, as well as the government’s numerous cost-cutting initiatives. Additionally, the authors note that as a result of the weakening Colombian peso, drug market expenditure in US dollar terms will also experience a decline in 2009, to US$2.24bn.
From 2010 onwards, the strengthening peso will mean that the value of Colombia’s pharmaceutical market will expand more quickly in US dollar terms over the 5- and extended 10-year forecast periods, a fact that should be of interest to foreign multinationals. By 2014, we forecast that the Colombian pharmaceutical market will be worth COP6,784bn (US$4.85bn), increasing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.3% in local currency terms and 16.7% in US dollar terms.
A study carried out by the Colombia-based University of Javeriana revealed that the country only has 1.6 doctors for every 1,000 people. The study also reported that there is a lack of specialists in general surgery, anaesthesia, internal medicine and paediatrics. The authors believe that the government needs to address the lack of physicians in the country, as in combination with the low number of hospitals in the country the outlook forColombia’s epidemiological profile is not promising. According to our online Burden of Disease Database (BoDD), the number of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to communicable diseases in Colombia will decrease from 1,127,249 in 2008 to 732,072 by 2030. The number of DALYs lost to non-communicable diseases will rise from 3,903,328 in 2008 to 4,825,407 by 2030.
On a positive note, spending on healthcare is calculated to increase over the forecast period. Colombia’s total health expenditure reached a value of COP27,655bn (US$14.1bn) in 2008 and is expected to reach COP28,972bn (US$13.6bn) in 2009. By 2014, the reports calculates that spending on healthcare will have reached a value of COP37,325bn (US$26.7bn), equating to a CAGR of 5.2% in local currency terms and 14.4% in US dollar terms.
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