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South Africa Tourism Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 65
Business Monitor International's South Africa Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview After growth in foreign tourist arrivals slowed in 2007 and 2008 to 8.5% and 5.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) respectively, the most recent data for the first eight months of 2009 show arrivals were up by a modest 3.7% y-o-y. Arrivals from Africa recorded positive growth of 6.7% y-o-y but every other region recorded y-o-y declines in visitor numbers. Arrivals from Zimbabwe were up by over 26% y-o-y in the eightmonth period, an increase of over 200,000 visitors, which represented 63% of the total rise in numbers from Africa. Europe and North America recorded falls in arrivals of almost 7% and 12% y-o-y respectively.
Hospitality The downturn in the hospitality sector remains pronounced. The most recent preliminary data for the first nine months of 2009 show that the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights in all accommodation establishments decreased by almost 9% compared with the same period a year earlier. In Q309, the number of room nights fell by 8.2% y-o-y, while in Q209 and Q109 the number of nights declined by 9.8% and 9.5% y-o-y respectively.
Forecast Scenario BMI has revised up its forecast for total foreign tourist arrivals in 2009 and the publsiher now expects an increase of over 1.7% y-o-y (as opposed to our previous forecast of a slight fall). The relatively weak scenario for 2009 is based mainly on recession in major source markets, particularly the eurozone. They also continue to question the tourist status of arrivals from Zimbabwe, particularly since the increase in arrivals from that country during the period January to August 2009 was broadly equivalent to the total rise in arrivals to South Africa. Appreciation of the South African rand against the US dollar and the euro in 2009 has also put added pressure on the tourism industry. In 2010, the publisher maintains that growth in tourist arrivals and tourism receipts will pick up sharply, as the country hosts the World Cup and economic recovery takes place in key source markets.
2010 World Cup Approximately 683,000 tickets had been sold for the World Cup by October 2009, with nearly 53% bought by South Africans. Of foreign ticket sales, at the end of September the US, the UK and Germany had bought the most tickets. However, ticket sales to other African countries have been disappointing. According to the authorities, all stadia being used for the World Cup were set for completion by the end of 2009, and four of the venues were used during that summer’s Confederations Cup. Of some concern though was an official statement in November that there was still a shortfall of more than 46,000 rooms needed for the tournament. FIFA is also closely monitoring the outbreak of the H1N1 virus (swine flu) as South Africa reported a sharp increase in cases of the virus towards the end of the year – 12,626 cases and 91 deaths as of the end of November.
South African Airways In the financial year ending March 2009, the national airline South African Airways (SAA) recorded a net profit of ZAR398mn against a net loss after restructuring costs of ZAR1.1bn in the previous year. The financial performance was favourable given the tough trading environment and shows that the airline’s restructuring programme is starting to pay off.
Sun International During FY08/09 (ending June 2009), South Africa’s leading hotel and casino company, Sun International, recorded an increase in group revenue of nearly 6% y-o-y to ZAR8.04bn. Operating profit, however, fell by 3% y-o-y to almost ZAR1.9bn, while pre-tax profit also declined, by over 12% y-o-y, to ZAR1.3bn. According to the company, the outlook for 2010 is for subdued trading to persist through the financial year with little improvement anticipated in the current economic conditions.
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