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Egypt Metals Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 49
Egypt Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's metals industry.
Despite declining global and domestic demand for flat steel, mainly used in consumer products, rebar demand in Egypt has shown relative resilience, fuelled by the robust construction sector. We expect this tendency to continue over the next year as demand for residential units keeps growing. Another factor, likely to act in support of this trend, is the government’s new stimulus package. If approved in December 2009, EGP10bn will be used to stimulate infrastructure development. However, its effect on the steel sector is dependent on the time span between the allocation of money to an infrastructure project and the commencement of work on it.
In December 2008, Egypt launched its initial stimulus package, worth EGP15bn (US$2.74bn), which was designed to mitigate the impact of falling revenues from the Suez canal, a decline in tourism and reduced foreign investment. Much of the first stimulus scheme focused on infrastructure; a policy that will be continued in the second package. In 2009, BMI forecasts that Egyptian steel production will fall by 7% before recovering to post near 20% growth by 2011. Double-digit growth will be maintained until the end of the forecast period in 2014, when production will reach 11.4mn tonnes. In the first nine months of 2009 Egypt’s major steel mills reported decreased profits. Misr National Steel (Ataqa) posted a net profit of EGP86.45mn for 9M09 a fall of 68% y-o-y. For the same period Egypt Japan Steel Works reported a net profit of EGP1.24mn down by 60% on a yearly basis. El Ezz Aldekhela Steel Alexandria, the first company from Ezz Steel Holding to post official 9M09 results, reported a net profit of EGP483.95mn, plummeting 82% from 9M08 levels.
Despite a positive result in H109, industry analysts expect Ezz Steel to post net loss of EGP21mn in Q3 – compared with a EGP502mn in profit in the same period in 2008 – as the company suffers from oversupply in international steel products and the collapse in steel prices. BMI believes that cost reductions and the ability to adjust operations margins will be vital for Ezz Steel to secure its market share given fierce current competition from Turkish imports.
In more positive news, billet producer Suez Steel announced the opening of its new rebar rolling mill in October 2009. The facility, to be completed by the end of 2009, will have a capacity of 550,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) and is the result of investment amounting to EGP620mn. A further EGP6bn will be spent on a Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) plant with 1.95mn tpa capacity and on increasing Suez Steel’s billet casting capacity to 2.06mn tpa by 2011. More development news in the rebar sector came in October 2009, from the state-owned Metallurgical Industries Holding Company, which is contemplating participating in an EGP5bn project for steel rebar production.
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