Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, December 2009, Pages: 63
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bolivia's oil and gas industry.
The new Bolivia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.71% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 0.58% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.74mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.90mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.61mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.17mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 201.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 256.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 27.4% growth. Production of an estimated 217.5bcm in 2009 should reach 299.0bcm in 2014, and implies 42.6bcm of net exports the end of the period. Bolivia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 1.29%, while its share of production was 6.87%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 1.23%, with the country accounting for 6.67% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Bolivian real GDP growth in 2009 is estimated by BMI at just 0.8%, down from 5.7% in 2008. We are assuming average annual 3.3% growth in 2010- 2014. There is increasing state control of oil and gas operations, thanks to government policy that supports re-nationalisation. This means that the burden of development falls heavily on state-owned Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB) and its few remaining international oil company (IOC) partners. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 62,000b/d by 2014, and the country is also expected to pump 62,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by around 2.0%-3.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 61,000b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting a decrease in Bolivian oil production of 2.7%, with crude volumes peaking in 2011/12 at 65,000b/d, before falling steadily to 56,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 26.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 67,000 b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 14.9bcm in 2009 to a peak of 20.0bcm in 2013/14, before slipping back to 18.0bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 48.0%, this provides export potential falling from a forecast peak of 16.9bcm in 2013 to 14.2bcm by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Bolivia now takes eighth place in BMI’s Upstream Business Environment rating, six points behind Ecuador but 10 points ahead of Mexico. Its proven gas resources and gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) work in the country’s favour, but are undermined by the state’s renewed control of assets, deteriorating licensing regime and generally unappealing risk environment. The country is at the foot of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its statecontrolled refining and marketing segment, modest capacity and less competitive environment, offset by a relatively low level of retail site intensity and the country’s gas self-sufficiency. Chile is immediately ahead of Bolivia in the regional rankings, but a wide gap exists between the two that is unlikely to be bridged by Bolivia at any point in the near future.
Executive Summary
Bolivia Energy Market Overview
Regional Energy Market Overview
Oil Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Oil: Downstream
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Gas Supply And Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Liquefied Natural Gas
Table: Latin America LNG Exports/(Imports) (bcm)
Business Environment Ranking
Latin America Region
Composite Scores
Table: Regional Upstream Business Environment Rating
Table: Regional Downstream Business Environment Rating
Upstream Scores
Downstream Scores
Bolivia Upstream Rating – Overview
Bolivia Upstream Rating – Potential Returns
Bolivia Upstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Bolivia Downstream Rating – Overview
Bolivia Downstream Rating – Potential Returns
Bolivia Downstream Rating – Risks To Potential Returns
Business Environment
Political Risk
Economic Risk
Business Environment
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Table: Bolivia Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts
Other Energy
Table: Bolivia Other Energy – Historical Data & Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Long-Term Energy Outlook
Macroeconomic Forecasts
Table: Bolivia - Macroeconomic Forecasts
Competitive Landscape
Executive Summary
Table: Key Players – Bolivia Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Table: Key Upstream Players
Table: Key Downstream Player
Company Monitor
Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB)
Petróleo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
Repsol YPF – Summary
Total – Summary
BG – Summary
YPFB Chaco – Summary
Petroandina – Summary
Gazprom – Summary
Transredes – Summary
YPFB Logística Sociedad Anónima – Summary
Glossary of Terms
Oil & Gas Ratings: Revised Methodology
Introduction
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings: Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Upstream Ratings: Methodology
Table: BMI Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings: Methodology
Oil & Gas Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts
Regional Oil Demand
Table: Latin America Oil Consumption (000b/d)
Regional Oil Supply
Table: Latin America Oil Production (000b/d)
Regional Refining Capacity
Table: Latin America Oil Refining Capacity (000b/d)
Regional Gas Demand
Table: Latin America Gas Consumption (bcm)
Regional Gas Supply
Table: Latin America Gas Production (bcm)
Bolivia Country Overview
Methodology & Risks To Forecasts
BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Sources
- Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB)
- Petróleo Brasileiro (Petrobras)
- Repsol YPF
- Total
- BG
- YPFB Chaco
- Petroandina
- Gazprom
- Transredes
- YPFB Logística Sociedad Anónima
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