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Lebanon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 74
The Lebanon Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Lebanon's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In the updated Business Environment Ratings matrix for Q110, Lebanon remains 13th out of the 17 markets surveyed in the Middle East and Africa (MEA) region. Lebanon’s position in the table, rated above only African markets, reflects the fact that its pharmaceutical market is viewed as the least promising among its Arab peers, due to its small size and a significant amount of counterfeit activity. Furthermore, the market will remain susceptible to shocks caused by funding shortfalls and other one-off factors, such as continuing political problems. The large proportion of the population not covered by any sort of health insurance programme represents another worrying factor.
Overall, we expect total drug spending in Lebanon to increase from LBP754bn (US$500mn) in 2008 to LBP974bn (US$650mn) in 2014. The figures imply a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.56% in local currency terms, as the generics segment continues to receive government support and high prices are targeted by state policies. However, the country’s small domestic drug manufacturing industry and the reliance on imports means that opportunities for those foreign multinationals willing to risk exposure to counterfeiters will continue to exist. Additionally, the fact that most generics are of a branded variety will remain a suitable point of entry into the market in the shorter term at least. In the longer term, funding constraints will require an increasing focus on cheaper, unbranded products under the public sector healthcare programme, resulting in the gradual slowdown of overall pharmaceutical market growth over the second half of our new, ten-year forecast period.
In the meantime, foreign direct investment (FDI) will continue to be hampered by the unresolved political situation in Lebanon, with the process of new government formation still unfinished, almost six months after the parliamentary elections. The economy has been ticking along, but further progress is conditional on political stability. On the other hand, the government’s desire to increase the local pharmaceutical output could present a suitable investment ground for foreign companies willing to risk exposure to a number of challenging conditions on the ground, provided the authorities are receptive to such ideas. On the other, the small size and basic offerings of the local manufacturing sector will render exports minimal (at under US$13mn) over the five-year forecast period, with such activities also held back by the intellectual property (IP) regime as well as production and technological capabilities in the country. However, manufacturing co-operation with foreign firms can help this process, while a greater implementation of Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) standards and economic factors, such as the availability of capital, will also play an important role. Nevertheless, Lebanon will remain one of the leading importers of drugs in the immediate region, with leading suppliers including pharmaceutical companies from France, Switzerland, Germany, Belgium and the UK.
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