|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Nov 2009, Pages: 84
Venezuela Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's oil and gas industry.
The latest Venezuela Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for 8.80% of Latin America regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 26.63% of supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.74mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.90mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.61mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.17mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 201.2bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 256.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 27.4% growth. Production of an estimated 217.5bcm in 2009 should reach 299.0bcm in 2014, and implies 42.6bcm of net exports the end of the period. Venezuela contributed an estimated 14.66% to 2009 regional gas consumption, while producing 13.56%. By 2014, it is expected to consume 15.91% of the region’s gas, while contributing 20.07% to supply. For 2009 as a whole, we have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Venezuelan real GDP in 2009 is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 5.6%, compared with growth of 4.8% in 2008. We are assuming average annual 1.0% growth in 2010- 2014. State-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (PdVSA) works in co-operation with numerous international oil company (IOC) partners in conventional and heavy oil projects. While recent re-nationalisation moves, changes in taxation and alterations to the licensing system have reduced foreign involvement, several key players appear committed to the country. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of 2.87mn b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump an estimated 2.38mn b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond the economic weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to increase by up to 3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 758,000b/d by this point. The export capability would thus be about 2.11mn b/d by 2014. Gas production is forecast to rise from an estimated 29.5bcm in 2009 to 60.0bcm over the period, allowing for 19.2bcm of exports by 2014.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Venezuelan oil production of 34.0%, with liquids volumes dipping to 2.35mn b/d in 2009 before rising steadily to 3.15mn b/d by 2019. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 33.1%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 878,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise steadily, from an estimated 29.5bcm in 2009 to 80.0bcm in 2019. With demand growth of 76.5%, this implies export potential rising to 27.9bcm by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Venezuela ranks second ahead of Peru and behind only Brazil in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, having gained ground in thanks to its vast hydrocarbons resource base. While only a point behind Brazil, it is unlikely to challenge for the outright regional lead unless the overall risk situation improves dramatically. As well as high scores for reserves, production growth potential and reserves-to-production ratios (RPR), Venezuela benefits from the substantial (but decreasing) number of international companies active within its upstream industry. The country now ranks equal seventh with Ecuador in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, reflecting its refining capacity, retail site intensity and growth in GDP per capita. Mexico above is probably out of reach, while Chile just two points behind is capable of mounting a challenge.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Venezuela Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Papua New Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Peru Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010
Mexico Oil and Gas Report Q4 2011
Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Bolivia Oil and Gas Report Q2 2010
|
|
|
|
