Emerging Pharmaceutical Blockbusters: 2010’s Billion-Dollar Babies

Decision Resources, Inc, December 2009, Pages: 28

Drugs commanding more than $1 billion in annual sales are the blockbusters and mega-blockbusters that biopharmaceutical companies aspire to bring to market. Whether the industry can sustain this model is a matter of debate, but Decision Resources foresees a new crop of future blockbusters reaching the market in 2010. The outlook for these drugs highlights drug and marketplace characteristics that can make big-ticket sales possible.

Questions Answered in this Report

- Decision Resources forecasts that eight drugs that will launch in 2010 have blockbuster sales potential. What are the targets of these agents? What clinical data support their launch? What are our forecasts for the peak-year sales that these agents will accrue for developing companies?

- Type 2 diabetes is a common indication focus for drugs in development—and has consistently been the target of a relatively high number of drugs for which we have predicted blockbuster potential. What are the likely new drug competitors in this marketplace? What related disorders are the primary indications for other emerging blockbusters? What does this signal for the blockbuster model?

- Among the predicted blockbusters expected to launch in 2010 is the first targeted therapeutic vaccine for cancer. How does this agent work? What success do we predict? What other innovations are evident in the roster of blockbuster contenders?

- We contend that the blockbuster model of success is evolving and that companies should not rely solely on the development of blockbusters. What is the current thinking about the blockbuster model? What percentage of drugs launched through 2006 became blockbusters? What models are companies using to bring blockbusters to market?

- Most of the potential blockbusters whose launch we have predicted in 2008, 2009, and 2010 were brought to market by leading, Big Pharma companies. Who are these traditional winners in the blockbuster stakes? What smaller companies are poised to join the ranks of the blockbuster companies with launches in 2010?

Scope

- Blockbuster coverage: descriptions and outlook for the eight drugs expected to launch in 2010 and eventually achieve blockbuster status:

– Byetta LAR.
– Qnexa.
– Certriad.
– Apixaban.
– Prolia.
– Provenge.
– Rilpivirine.
– Numax.

- Blockbuster retrospective: a review of our blockbuster launch predictions for 2009—which agents have indeed launched, and what sales have they garnered to date?

- Drivers and constraints of the blockbuster model: indications, innovation, novelty, regulations.

Executive Summary
Strategic Considerations
Stakeholder Implications
Introduction

Alkermes/Amylin/Eli Lilly’s Byetta LAR
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

Vivus’s Qnexa
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

Abbott/AstraZeneca’s Certriad
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

Bristol-Myers Squibb/Pfizer’s Apixaban
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

Amgen’s Prolia
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

Dendreon’s Provenge
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

Tibotec’s Rilpivirine
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

MedImmune’s Numax
Drug Description
Clinical Data
Commercial Assessment

Drivers and Constraints of the Blockbuster Model

Tables

1. Potential Blockbusters Expected to Reach the Market in 2010
2. Blockbusters Facing Patent Expiry in 2010
3. Select Examples of Follow-On Drugs
4. Select Examples of Me-Too Drugs
5. Retrospective of Blockbuster Agents That Were Expected to Launch in 2009
6. Factors Influencing the Market Uptake of Potential Blockbusters
7. Profile of Two Small Companies with Big Drugs

Figures

1. Ratio of Blockbusters to Total Drugs Launched, 1997-2006
2. Top Ten Type 2 Diabetes Treatments, 2008
3. Development of a Cancer Vaccine: Provenge’s Clinical Timeline

- Abbott
- Alkermes
- Amgen
- Amylin
- AstraZeneca
- Bayer
- Boehringer Ingelheim
- Bristol-Myers Squibb
- Centocor
- Dendreon
- Eli Lilly
- Gilead
- Johnson & Johnson
- MedImmune
- Merck
- Mitsubishi Tanabe
- Novo Nordisk
- Ortho-McNeil
- Pfizer
- Roche
- Sanofi -Aventis
- Schering-Plough
- Takeda
- Tibotec
- Vanda
- Vivus
- Wyeth

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