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Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 56
Equatorial Guinea Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Equatorial Guinea's oil and gas industry.
The new Equatorial Guinea Oil & Gas Report forecasts that the country will account for just 0.03% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 3.33% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.60mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.66mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.13mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001 and averaged an estimated 9.79mn b/d in 2009. It is set to rise to 12.52mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.19mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.40mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region consumed an estimated 124bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2009, with demand of 191bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 124bcm in 2009 to 193bcm by the end of the period. Equatorial Guinea in 2009 consumed an estimated 1.25% of the region’s gas, with its market share set to be 1.03% by 2014. It contributed 2.71% to estimated 2009 regional gas production and, by 2014, will account for 1.74% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, the authors have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast we were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, we expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. For 2009, the authors have assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Equatorial Guinea’s real GDP is estimated to have fallen by 4.5% in 2009, compared with 10.1% growth in 2008. the authors are assuming average annual growth of 2.5% in 2010-2014. The authors expect oil demand to rise from an estimated 1,100b/d in 2009 to 1,400b/d in 2014. State oil company GEPetrol’s primary focus is to manage the interest stakes of the government in various production sharing contracts (PSCs) and joint ventures (JVs) with international oil companies (IOCs). Thanks to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from an estimated 360,000b/d in 2009 to 417,000b/d in 2014, peaking at the 2013 level of 425,000b/d before going into decline. Gas production should be around 6.7bcm by 2014, unchanged from the estimated 2009 level. Consumption is expected to rise from 1.5bcm to 2.0bcm by the end of the forecast period, providing exports of 4.7bcm – in the form of LNG.
Between 2009 and 2019, the authors are forecasting an increase in Equatorial Guinea oil and gas liquids production of 4.6%, with volumes peaking at 425,000b/d in 2013, before falling steadily to 376,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 62.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 1,800b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 7.3bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 62.9% between 2009 and 2019, there is scope for exports of around 4.8bcm. Details of the 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Equatorial Guinea now shares ninth and last place with Sudan in the updated Upstream Business Environment rating. It is in a reasonable position to move higher over the medium term. The country’s score benefits from moderate oil and gas output growth prospects and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is somewhat shaky, but this is hardly uncommon in the African region. The country is also near the bottom of the league table in the updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or refineries are built. It is ranked ninth, above only Gabon, thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population
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