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OECD Economic Surveys: France 2009
OECD Publishing, May 2009, Pages: 132
This 2009 edition of OECD's periodic survey of the French economy includes chapters covering coping with recession, labour market reforms, restoring French competitiveness, and strengthening competition.
The French economy has not escaped the severe recession gripping all developed countries, but it should be less deep than elsewhere due to powerful automatic stabilisers. Nevertheless, the crisis will leave public finances in a serious condition. This 2009 edition of OECD's periodic survey of the French economy includes chapters covering coping with recession, labour market reforms, restoring French competitiveness, and strengthening competition.
After ending the year 2008 with a sharp decline, output in France is likely to contract further during the rest of this year, and prospects for 2010 remain highly uncertain, despite the many stimulus plans at home and abroad. The recession should be less deep than elsewhere, due inter alia to powerful automatic stabilisers. However, while the finances of big banks and households do not appear to be in as bad shape as they are in several other countries, the capacity of the French private sector to revive activity in advance of a global recovery is limited. Moreover, given the already high deficit and debt levels, the crisis will leave public finances in a serious condition.
In this context, the principal short-term challenge is to pull the economy out of recession, while avoiding as far as possible recourse to budgetary measures that would be difficult to undo later. The recovery plan adopted at the beginning of the year meets many of these conditions, although the impact of certain measures will not be felt until the second half of 2009, at the earliest. If a further series of actions is deemed necessary, however, it will be more difficult to employ the same kind of self-reversing provisions targeted at business investment and cash flow.
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