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Bulgaria Insurance Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 75
Bulgaria Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's insurance industry.
This report differs from its predecessors in several respects. In the analysis of competitive conditions, the authors provide a much more comprehensive ranking of insurance companies in the major segments from the point of view of the organisation that is providing the data (in practice almost always the national insurance regulator or the national insurance trade association). In Bulgaria, for instance, the three largest non-life companies in the first half of 2009 – in terms of Gross Written Premiums written – were Bulstrad - Vienna Insurance Group, DZI - General insurance and Lev Ins whose market shares were 15.6%, 14% and 11.2% respectively. In the life segment, the leaders in the first half of 2009 were Allianz Bulgaria Life, DZI and UNIQA Life, whose market shares were 21%, 16.1% and 10.9% respectively. Over time, the authors hope to derive insights from observing how market shares change. The authors emphasise though, that a decline in share of gross written premiums is not automatically a bad thing and is often the result of a deliberate corporate decision to focus on more profitable business lines.
This report also provides a breakdown of the insurance sector by line – from the point of view of the regulator or the trade association. In Bulgaria, for instance, the largest non-life lines in 2008 were motor (CASCO), compulsory motor third party liability (CMTPL) and fire and diverse risks. These accounted for 43%, 26% and 14%, respectively, of total non-life premiums. Over time, the authors should be able to use this information to bring greater sophistication to our forecasting process.
Writing in November 2009 the authors have been able to ensure that the report includes actual data for 2008. The authors have generally been able to use data that has been published over the course of 2009 to adjust our forecasts for the year as a whole. The forecasts have been extended out to 2014. The authors are looking for total premiums in 2009 of BGN1,780mn. This includes non-life premiums of BGN1,491mn and life premiums of BGN290mn. In 2014, the corresponding figures should be BGN2,942mn, BGN2,322mn and BGN620mn. In terms of the key drivers that underpin our forecasts, the authors are looking for non-life penetration to rise from 2.28% in 2009 to 2.68% in 2014, and for life density to rise from US$28 to US$44. The proprietary Insurance Business Environment Rating for Bulgaria is 50.2. The report includes a discussion of developments within regional markets – on the basis of results published by major cross-border companies in relation to Q209 or Q309 and the latest information provided by regulators and/or trade associations. In the non-life segment, there was a slight increase in gross written premiums from BGN953.5mn to BGN956.9mn. Trends in life insurance varied markedly from country to country round the region, but official figures showed double-digit falls in premiums in Bulgaria.
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