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Angola Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 78
Business Monitor International's Angola Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Angola's oil and gas industry.
The latest Angola Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.34% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 19.17% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.60mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.66mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.13mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and averaged an estimated 9.79mn b/d in 2009. It is set to rise to 12.52mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.19mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.40mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 124bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 191bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 124bcm in 2009 to 193bcm by the end of the period. Angola in 2009 consumed an estimated 3.24% of the region’s gas, while producing just 1.62%. By 2014, the publisher expects its share of consumption to be 4.84%, with a 4.24% contribution to regional gas production. For 2009 as a whole, the publisher has assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast the publisher was using in the previous quarter. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Angola’s real GDP is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 0.8% in 2009, compared with 14.8% growth in 2008. The publisher is assuming average annual growth of 7.7% in 2010-2014. Healthy economic growth is exceeded by spectacular oil demand growth, albeit from a low base. Consumption is set to rise from an estimated 85,000b/d in 2009 to 179,000b/d by 2014. State oil company Sonangol operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs) and now accounts for less than 40% of the country’s oil output. Thanks largely to IOC investment, oil output is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.80mn b/d in 2009 to 2.40mn b/d in 2014, with exports heading towards 2.22mn b/d. Project slippage, brought about by lower oil prices, has weakened the volume growth trend, with Angola’s new-found OPEC membership also posing problems in terms of production quotas. Gas production of an estimated 4.0bcm in 2009 could reach 16.3bcm by 2014. Consumption is expected to rise to 9.b3cm by the end of the forecast period, providing export potential of around 7.0bcm.
Between 2009 and 2019, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Angolan oil and gas liquids production of 17.0%, with volumes peaking at 2.55mn b/d in 2015, before slipping steadily to 2.10mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 346.9%, with growth slowing to an assumed 15.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 378,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 35.0bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising 365.5% between 2009 and 2019, there should be export potential increasing to 16.4bcm, in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Angola now occupies third place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, although it is just one point behind Nigeria, and therefore capable of a move higher. The country’s score benefits from an excellent oil and gas output growth outlook, respectable proven reserves, a large number of non state companies active in the upstream sector and decent licensing terms. There is little immediate threat from Gabon just one point below it. The country is in the middle of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores but progress further up the rankings unlikely over the near term. It now shares fifth place with Libya in spite of low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas consumption, and private company competition in the downstream segment.
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