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Chile Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 75
Business Monitor International's Chile Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's oil and gas industry.
The latest Chile Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 4.55% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. Latin America regional oil use of 6.93mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 reached an estimated 7.74mn b/d in 2009. It should average 7.90mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 8.61mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 10.30mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.67mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.78mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 3.37mn b/d. This total had fallen to an estimated 1.92mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to recover to 2.17mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 201.2bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 256.4bcm targeted for 2014, representing 27.4% growth. Production of an estimated 217.5bcm in 2009 should reach 299.0bcm in 2014, and implies 42.6bcm of net exports the end of the period. Chile’s estimated share of gas consumption in 2009 was 1.84%, while it had a 0.78% share of production. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 2.89%, with Chile making a contribution of just 0.47% to production.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher has assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast they were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00 in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Chilean real GDP in 2009 is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 0.9%, compared with growth of 3.2% in 2008. The publisher is assuming average annual 3.3% growth in 2010- 2014. State oil and gas company Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas production, with volumes in decline. They are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 4,000b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump an average 7,000b/d in 2010. Consumption beyond 2009 is forecast to increase by 2-3% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 392,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be around 388,000b/d by 2014. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 1.7bcm in 2009 to a peak of 1.8bcm in 2010, falling back to 1.4bcm in 2014, with net imports of 6.0bcm required by 2014.
Between 2009 and 2019, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Chilean oil consumption of 25.5%, with demand rising steadily from an estimated 345,000b/d to 433,000b/d. The annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2.0% towards the end of the period. Gas production is expected to peak at around 1.8bcm in 2010, before declining steadily to 1.1bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 149.7% to 9.2bcm, this provides an import requirement rising from 2.0bcm to 8.1bcm during the 10-year period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report. Chile’s share of last place with Mexico in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating is achieved in spite of high reserves-to-production ratios (RPR) and an investor-friendly country risk profile. There is little likelihood of a move much further up the rankings, but Chile may be able to overtake Mexico during the next few quarters. Chile fares slightly better in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, taking ninth place (ahead only of Bolivia), reflecting its oil demand growth outlook, regulatory environment and attractive country risk rating. It is positioned behind Venezuela in the league table, with the potential to challenge for eighth place.
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