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Gabon Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 50
Business Monitor International's Gabon Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Gabon's oil and gas industry.
The new Gabon Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 0.41% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 1.95% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.60mn in 2009. It should average 3.66mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.13mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.79mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.52mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.19mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.40mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 124bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 191bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 124bcm in 2009 to 193bcm by the end of the period. Gabon is neither a significant regional producer nor consumer of gas.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher has assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast the publisher was using in the previous quarter. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond. For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level.
Gabon’s real GDP is estimated by BMI to have risen by 0.9% in 2009, compared with 4.2% growth in 2008. The publisher is assuming average annual growth of 3.3% in 2010-2014. The publisher expects oil demand to rise from an estimated 13,560b/d in 2009 to 17,000b/d in 2014. State oil company Société Nationale Petrolière Gabonaise (SNPG) operates in partnership with various international oil companies (IOCs). Combined oil and gas liquids output is forecast to decrease from an estimated 258,000b/d in 2009 to 245,000b/d in 2014. Gas production should reach 1bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 0.1bcm in 2009. Consumption is expected to follow the production trend, with no need for imports but no surplus gas to export. Between 2009 and 2019, the publisher is forecasting a decrease in Gabon oil and gas liquids production of 14.3%, with volumes peaking at 265,000b/d in 2010, before falling steadily to 221,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 59.8%, with growth slowing to an assumed 5.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 22,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 1bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 900% between 2009 and 2019, there should be a balanced market, with no need for imports or scope for exports. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Gabon now occupies fourth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, just behind Angola. In spite of being one point behind Angola and two behind Nigeria, it is no position to move higher over the medium term. The county’s score benefits from healthy gas output growth prospects, a particularly high gas reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) and attractive licensing terms. The country’s risk environment is fragile but this is hardly uncommon in Africa. Algeria may be able to overtake Gabon during the next few quarters. The country is at the bottom of the league table in BMI’s updated Downstream Business Environment rating, with no high scores and progress further up the rankings unlikely unless the energy market grows rapidly or new refineries are built. It is ranked last behind even Equatorial Guinea thanks to low scores for refining capacity, oil and gas demand, likely refining capacity expansion, nominal GDP and population.
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