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Jordan and Lebanon Insurance Report 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 47
Business Monitor International's Jordan and Lebanon Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Jordan and Lebanon's insurance industry.
Even combined, the Jordanian and Lebanese insurance markets continue to be very small for insurance providers. Growth rates have been strong – but from a very low base. In Lebanon, the catastrophic events of 2005 held the sector back – particularly in the life segment – and while growth has continued since then, the overall sector remains lacklustre. As noted below, the industry in October 2009 outlined its view of how government policies have not done enough to support growth.
In Jordan, non-life premiums (including medical insurance premiums) rose from JOD197mn in 2005 to JOD234mn in 2006 to JOD262mn in 2007 and JOD297mn in 2008. The non-life premiums include medical insurance premiums amounting to JOD36mn, JOD43mn, JOD52mn and JOD65mn respectively in the four years, according to data from the Jordan Insurance Federation. the publisher has assumed that premiums grew by 8% in 2009.
The Association des Compagnies d'Asssurances au Liban (ACAL) says that non-life premiums in Lebanon rose from LBP635,418mn in 2005 to LBP691,964mn in 2006 to LBP725,870mn in 2007. A report in the Middle Eastern Insurance Review of September 2009 indicated that non-life premiums rose to LBP890,842mn in 2008. The publisher has assumed that the rate of growth in premiums through 2008 was maintained through 2009.
However, in the case of Jordan, non-life premiums expressed in terms of a percentage of GDP have been in the doldrums and the publisher expects them only to return to 2007 levels by 2010. In 2006, non-life premiums represented 2.24% of GDP, falling to 2.17% in 2007 and 1.97% in 2008 and an estimated 2.07% in 2009. That should grow to 2.18% in 2010 and steadily but slowly to 2.5% by 2013.
The pattern in Lebanon has been similar, with non-life premiums as a percentage of GDP at 2.05% in 2006, falling slightly the following year and rising to 2.04% in 2008. the publisher anticipates that figure to have improved to 2.43% in 2009 and that it will rise to 2.6% by 2013.
Non-life premium growth Jordan from 2006 has tapered off since the 19% recorded in 2006 to some 12% for 2009. The publisher anticipates this will fall further to 8% in 2010 before returning to around 12% for the following four years.
In Lebanon, non-life premium growth was slower in 2006 and 2007 as the country worked through the security issues following 2005 but grew strongly at 23% in both 2008 and 2009. This is expected to taper off in an uneven pattern over the coming four years, falling to 8% in 2010, rising to 10% in 2011 but falling away to 3% and 5% respectively in 2012 and 2013, giving a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%.
In the life segment, density is much lower in Jordan than Lebanon. This data shows that in 2006 life density in Jordan was US$6. Since then it has seen steady, but decidedly undramatic growth, rising to US$7 in 2007, US$8 in 2008 and an estimated US$9 in 2009. The publisher anticipates 2010 and 2010 will see a plateau around US$10 before growth returns to deliver a density of US$12 by 2013.
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