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Peru Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 74
Peru Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Peru's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
The Peruvian pharmaceutical market is the smallest of those in BMI’s coverage of the Latin American region. Nevertheless, the country offers considerable longer-term benefits to foreign companies, not least because its population is expected to top 30mn by the end of 2010. The recently-ratified free trade agreement (FTA) with the US is viewed as a positive development, with Peruvian businesses gaining access to the largest market in the world and US companies benefiting from improved regulatory conditions. In the meantime, the country’s economic development is forecast to experience modest but steady growth, with real GDP growth and fiscal expenditure forecast to increase, providing a solid foundation for the further growth of healthcare and pharmaceutical expenditures.
BMI calculates that pharmaceutical sales in Peru reached PEN2.58bn (US$0.89bn) in 2008. This represents impressive market growth of 8.5% in local currency terms and 16.3% in US dollar terms since 2007. However, BMI’s forecast for 2009 is more conservative. We calculate that the drug market will experience growth of 5.4%, reaching a value of PEN2.72bn in 2009. However we note that as a result of the weakening Peruvian nuevo sol in 2009, drug market expenditure in US dollar terms will experience a 2.9% decline to US$0.86bn, before rising to US$0.93bn in 2010. BMI also attributes the decline in Peru’s pharmaceutical expenditure growth in 2009 to the economic downturn and the resultant drop in the country’s GDP growth. Our Country Risk team forecasts GDP growth declining from 9.8% in 2008 to 2.0% in 2009. The forecasted medium-term strengthening of the nuevo sol means that the value of Peru’s pharmaceutical market will expand more quickly in US dollar terms over the 5- and extended 10-year forecast periods, a fact that should be of interest to foreign multinationals.
In H209, it was revealed that Peru’s Directorate General of Pharmaceuticals, Inputs and Drugs (DIGEMID), part of the Ministry of Health (MINSA), has implemented a Law on Pharmaceutical Products, Medical Devices and Health Products. The law will focus on the quality control of medicines and medical devices that are produced locally, as well as those products that are imported into the country.
BMI welcomes the ministry’s efforts as we believe such initiatives will work towards providing the country’s citizens with access to quality medicines. Additionally, the implementation of legislation that aims to improve manufacturing practices should be welcomed by the country’s drugmakers, as it is a step towards making Peru more attractive to multinationals and increases the competitiveness of locallymanufactured medicines. However, many smaller producers will be unable to finance the changes.
Additionally, BMI believes that in addition to accreditation, this marks a radical shift in the Peruvian pharmaceutical industry, and together with the US-Peru FTA should allow the country to access international markets through exports in the long term.
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