3Q11 Finland Mobile Operator Forecast, 2011 - 2015: Finland to have 9.9 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with DNA taking 24% market share
- Published: November 2011
- Region: Finland
Mobile Operator Forecast on Finland provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Finish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Finland include: TeliaSonera AB, Elisa Oyj, and DNA Finland Oy. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
DNA Finland Oy
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
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PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
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PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
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POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
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MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
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MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
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SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
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YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
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EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) -
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
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- Available only for TeliaSonera and Elisa
Strong subscriber growth continues in Finland's wireless market
+12.9% industry-average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009
ARPU levels continue declining in Finland's mobile operator space
-10.9% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are decreasing
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -9.9% in 3Q.2009
Positive EBITDA growth at Elisa and DNA in the latest quarter
+3.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Finland to reach 8.9 million in 2014
- We forecast that the number of total subscriber accounts in Finland will increase from 7.09 million in 2009 to 8.89 million in 2014.
- The largest mobile operator in 2014 will be Elisa with 3.22 million mobile subscribers. We also forecast that the numbers of mobile subscribers at TeliaSonera and DNA will be approximately 3.19 million and 2.48 million respectively by the end of 2014.
TeliaSonera's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
- We predict market share losses at the largest two operators over the next several years. We forecast that TeliaSonera's subscriber market share in Finland's wireless market will decline from 38.9% in 2009 to 35.9% in 2014.
- We also expect that Elisa's market share will decrease from 37.3% in 2009 to 36.2% in 2014.
- Instead, DNA's share of total subscribers will rise from 23.8% in 2009 to 27.9% in 2014, according to our model.
ARPU levels in Finland will continue to decline from 2010 to 2014
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from €23.87 in 2009 to €21.24 in 2014.
- We expect that TeliaSonera's monthly ARPU will decline to €21.80 and Elisa's monthly ARPU will decline to €21.94 in 2014.
EBITDA margins to remain stable in Finland's wireless market
- TeliaSonera will continue to have higher EBITDA margins than Elisa and DNA over the next five years. We forecast that TeliaSoneras EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will be approximately 31.6% in 2014.
- On the other hand, we forecast that EBITDA margins at Elisa and DNA will be 30.4% and 21.2% in 2014.