4Q11 Sweden Mobile Operator Forecast, 2012 - 2015: Sweden to have 14.6 million mobile subscriber connections in 2015 with Telenor taking 15% market share
- Published: March 2012
- Region: Sweden
Mobile Operator Forecast on Sweden provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for the Swedish wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2014. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 3Q2011. Operators covered for Sweden include: TeliaSonera AB, Tele2 AB, Telenor Sverige AB, and Hutchison Telecomm Intl. Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Companies Covered in this Country Mobile Operator Forecast
Telenor Sverige AB
Hutchison Telecomm Intl. Limited (For Hutchison, only the subscriber data is available)
Annual Results & Forecasts for each of the above operators is covered in this report for: CY 2001-CY 2014. Quarterly Results & Forecasts are covered for: March 2003 - September 2011
PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR -
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
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(EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
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REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
- Available only for TeliaSonera AB
Wireless subscriber growth in Sweden is slowing down
+8.1% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2009
ARPUs are declining at TeliaSonera and Telenor
-1.0% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber continue to increase in Sweden
+5.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 3Q.2009
Telenor enjoyed a high EBITDA growth rate in the latest quarter
+2.0% industry average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2009
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
The Swedish wireless market will have 12.9 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2014
- We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Sweden will increase from 11.8 million in 2009 to 12.9 million in 2014.
- TeliaSonera will continue to be the largest operator in the country with 5.83 million subscribers in 2014.
- Tele2 will remain in second place with its 3.67 million subscribers while Telenor with 2.25 million will remain in third place in 2014.
- We expect that the fourth operator, Hutchison, will also continue to expand its subscriber base over the next five years, and it will have 1.14 million subscriber accounts in 2014.
Telenor's market share will be increasing over the next five years
- According to our forecasting model, Telenor's subscriber market share will increase from 16.8% in 2009 to 17.4% in 2014. We also forecast that Hutchison's market share will increase from 8.3% in 2009 to 8.9% in 2014.
- On the other hand, we expect market shares of the larger operators, TeliaSonera and Tele2, will be declining slightly. Our model predicts that TeliaSonera's market share will decline from 45.9% to 45.2% and Tele2's market share will decline from 28.9% to 28.5% over the forecast period, 2009 - 2014.
ARPU levels in Sweden will continue to decline over the next several years
- We expect that the industry average monthly ARPU will fall from SEK 209 in 2009 to SEK 183 in 2014.
- We think that Telenor will continue to receive higher ARPUs than TeliaSonera and Tele2, but we still expect that Telenor's monthly ARPU will decline from SEK 262 in 2009 to SEK 203 in 2014.
- Our model forecasts that ARPU levels at TeliaSonera and Tele2 will be approximately SEK 165 and SEK 199 respectively in 2014.
TeliaSonera will be enjoying a higher level of profitability than its competitors from 2010 to 2014
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will remain at approximately 32% over the next several years.
- TeliaSonera will continue to enjoy a higher level of profitability than Tele2 and Telenor in Sweden. We expect that EBITDA margins at TeliaSonera, Tele2, and Telenor will be approximately 40.3%, 29.4%, and 21.6% respectively in 2014.
Telenor Sverige AB
Hutchison Telecomm Intl. Limited