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Annual Australian Mortgage Market Outlook
Retail Finance Intelligence (RFI), March 2009, Pages: 40
The Australian mortgage market had been challenged by falling housing affordability amid rising housing prices, soaring inflation and interest rate hikes until September 2008 when the RBA averted these monetary policies. Despite the implementation of stimulative economic policies, the threat of economic recession has added uncertainty to the outlook of the Australian mortgage market. This report aims to analyse the development of the Australian mortgage market and to forecast its trend for the period between 2009 and 2013.
Scope & methodology
This major report and it’s forecasts are derived from data collected from the RBA, Australian Bureau of Statistics, the HIA, APRA and both industry and consumer information collected directly by RFI.
- Includes a comprehensive overview of the Australian residential mortgage market.
- Draws upon a RBA, ABS plus RFI online consumer survey to gain insights into the current mindset of the Australian mortgagor.
- Includes market overview, analysis of customers, product attributes, competitor breakdown and market forecasts.
- Provides scenario forecasts for lending commitments in Australia until 2013.
Report highlights
- Effects of the global financial crisis on the Australian mortgage market.
- Forecasts of First Home Buyers verses Non-First Home Buyers in the market.
- Who has dominated the mortgage market during this period?
- Loan type preferences.
- Economic growth forecasts.
Loan Type Preference
In Australia, borrowers tend to favour variable rate loans over fixed rate loans, indicated by the fact that fixed loans have represented only less than 25% of all dwelling financed since July 1991. From mid-2004, an increasing percentage of fixed rate loans were employed in dwelling finance due to growing concerns over interest rate hikes, up from 6.7% in July 2004 to 23.6% in February 2008. Until December 2008, fixed loans had dropped to 2.5% of all dwellings financed, reflecting borrowers’ intention to take advantage of falling interest rates. According to the RFI AMC Survey conducted in November 2008, 18% of home loan borrowers and 23% of investment property loan borrowers intended to take out a fixed rate loan, compared with 68% and 65% respectively who favoured variable rate loans. Borrowers' preference for variable mortgages may help Australia weather the global financial crisis, as financial cost reductions can be passed onto the public at a relatively low cost.
Reasons to read this report
- A strong overview of the mortgage market and where it is heading for planning strategies with scenario-based forecasts of Australian lending commitments until 2012.
- Possible gaps in the market that can be capitalised upon.
- Understand the challenges the mortgage industry is facing, as well as the opportunities.
- In-depth analysis of how Australian industry players approach different issues, allowing you to reassess your strategy.
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