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China PV Market Development
Greentech Media, Inc., Sep 2009, Pages: 106
One constant in what many have called “the miracle” of China’s enormous economic growth over the past 30 years has been a reliance on export economies. The development of the PV industry has been no exception. Since the industry’s modest beginnings in 2002, domestic cell and module manufacturers have exported more than 95 percent of their products to overseas markets – relying on the favorable energy policies of European governments to drive demand for Chinese production. As China has rapidly vaulted to the top of global solar cell manufacturing capacity, it has done so largely due to unprecedented demand from countries like Germany, Spain, Italy, and the United States, among others. As 2008 drew to a close and the realities of one of worst global economic crises since the Great Depression began to crystallize, domestic Chinese manufacturers in many industries scaled back production, laid off workers, and some even stopped operations completely. It was in this context that the Chinese government, recognizing the need to support this critical growth industry with domestic demand, began to seriously consider national solar incentives. With many other markets stalling due to a lack of financing and uncertain policy regimes, China will likely be one of the key growth markets for the solar sector in both the near- and long-term. Understanding the structure of the solar market in China and how it will grow will be key to understanding global demand trends as well as opportunities for investment and partnerships in this emerging market.
This report analyzes how the Chinese domestic PV market will develop, profiles major players and their strategies, and evaluates opportunities throughout the value chain that market development presents. The findings are based on more than 20 interviews and site visits around China with major solar manufacturers and installation companies, relevant government regulatory bodies, as well as wind industry representatives and local utility analysts.
In 2007 China announced goals to install 300 MW of PV by 2012 and 1.8 GW by 2020. Given recent policy developments and project announcements, China will be well on its way to exploding past those goals and in fact is expected to announce new targets later this year. Depending on the timing of these announcements and the success of several pilot projects, the Chinese market has very real potential to ramp well beyond 1 GW in 2011.
Beyond presenting a critical analysis of current Chinese solar policy and market development, the goal of this report is to provide a basic understanding of both Chinese power sector dynamics and the historical development of the domestic wind industry. In turn, an appreciation of these dynamics is intended to provide critical context to the detailed analysis of the solar sector and its potential going forward.
In this report:
- Annual installed capacity projections for 2009 – 2012 based upon detailed project tracking and interviews with domestic project developers. Multiple market demand scenarios are presented.
- Profiles of 18 different solar companies, electricity generation companies, and renewable energy-related government agencies.
- Extensive project return analysis for different locations under various incentive schemes (both approved and proposed programs), sensitized for factors such as interest rates, feed-in tariff rates, system price, and project leverage ratio.
- Detailed cost breakdown projections for domestic projects (rooftop and ground mount).
- Analysis of business opportunities along the value chain for both Chinese and foreign companies to take advantage of current and proposed subsidy programs.
- In-depth guide to China’s overarching renewable energy policy and to each of the announced solar subsidy programs, including detailed descriptions of relevant government program administrators, as well as project applications, requirements, and deadlines.
- Comprehensive overview of China’s electricity sector; both the major players and their plans for building out solar capacity as well as the legislative and economic drivers for the expansion of solar power in China.
- A detailed guide to the development of the wind industry in China, which over the past six years has grown to become the fourth largest end-market for wind capacity, and will likely become the number two global market in 2010. The development process for the Chinese solar industry will likely be very similar to the development of the domestic wind market, and so an understanding of the domestic wind sector is crucial to understanding when and how the solar market will grow.
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