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The United States PV Market: Project Economics, Policy, Demand, and Strategy Through 2013
Greentech Media, Inc., Dec 2009, Pages: 376
This report presents our comprehensive analysis of the downstream market for photovoltaic (PV) power in the United States through 2013. It considers demand, regulatory structures and project economics at the utility, state and federal level. The primary focus of this report is to analyze the proximity of price convergence between PV generation and grid electricity prices in three market segments: residential, commercial and utility-scale. Price convergence, which incorporates both the policy and fi nancial variables that determine demand for PV, underpins our bottom-up, state-by-state, segment-by-segment demand forecast of the U.S. PV market. This report seeks to identify the highest opportunity areas for PV development in the U.S.
The United States PV Market: Opportunity in Complexity
Global PV demand grew at an average rate of 51 percent per annum from 2000 to 2008, led by rapid growth in the German and Spanish markets. However, today’s global PV market is experiencing diffi cult circumstances. As we concluded in last year’s 2009 Global PV Demand Analysis and Forecast: The Anatomy of a Shakeout II, the shift to a buyer’s market for modules and components has weakened the position of suppliers, forcing them to become both more competitive in their pricing and more innovative in their product offerings. Such diversifi ed strategies are more evident in the U.S. than any other market, owing both to a complex set of policies and to a diverse range of end-market requirements. We argue that embracing strategic diversifi cation will be advantageous for companies competing in the U.S. market.
Between 2000 and 2008, annual installed grid-connected PV capacity in the U.S. grew from 4 MW to 290 MW at an average rate of 71 percent per annum. This rapid growth made the U.S. the third-largest global demand center behind Germany and Spain. Only the U.S., however, has the potential to engender a truly sustainable, long-term market. With high insolation, the greatest electricity demand in the world, and ample available land for PV development, the U.S. presents an attractive longterm growth opportunity for developers, installers, fi nanciers, and other PV service providers. Most global industry players recognize this potential and are seeking to develop and refi ne a U.S. market strategy.
Electricity in the U.S. is regulated at the local, state and federal level. The prevailing regulatory authority is the state public utility commission, which governs electricity pricing, utility portfolios, and most renewable energy and energy effi ciency programs in each state. Because of this the U.S. cannot be considered a single market. The relationship between a state legislature, a utility, a utility commission and a utility’s customers varies signifi cantly across state markets, and each market must be considered independently. Thus the demand dynamics within each state market warrant individual consideration, as they are unique to that state and will impact strategic decision making for every market participant.
Developing a downstream U.S. PV market strategy requires a deliberate, highly specifi ed approach to each application, state market and market segment. Historically, deep analysis of the residential or commercial markets in California or New Jersey was suffi cient to understand the brunt of the U.S. PV market. However, in recent years the market has developed into a multi-tiered demand center, with many secondary and tertiary market states supporting suffi cient demand to warrant individual consideration. Over the next four years, this dynamic will expand as both regulatory targets and additional state demand markets expand.
This report provides a critical lens through which to view the U.S. PV market. As the economy recovers from recession and the market resumes expansion, the critical questions for downstream market players are:
1. Where in the U.S. does opportunity lie for project development?
2. What is the recession’s long-term impact on project fi nancing and ownership structures in the U.S.?
3. How quickly will PV demand recover from the recession? How much will Recovery Act spending alter this dynamic?
4. When will price convergence between PV generation and grid electricity emerge in each demand segment? How will the market respond? 5. How does the multitude of federal, state and utility incentive structures affect the economics of PV projects? Do some incentive types provide more value than others?
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