Caribbean Tourism Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, January 2010, Pages: 34
Caribbean Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Caribbean's tourism industry.
2009 Arrivals Bear Out Dismal Forecast
The Caribbean suffered from a major slowdown in tourist arrivals in 2009, bearing out our gloomy prognosis for the year. With most countries now having reported arrivals figures for H109 and some for Q309 as well, only four have experienced increased tourism arrivals: Cuba, with arrivals growth of 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y); Curacao with 1.5% y-o-y; Guyana with 5.7% y-o-y and Jamaica with 4.1% y-o-y. Although these figures are below pre-2008 levels, they are particularly impressive given the severe declines experienced by other countries in the region. The British Virgin Islands recorded a 25.0% y-o-y drop in arrivals, followed by Anguilla (22.6%), Montserrat (17.5%), Bermuda (17.0%) and Bonaire (16.7%).
Although these figures show heavy declines, they appear to have stabilised and we believe the tourism industry is past the worst. The US and European economies are beginning to recover and this revival is likely to pick up in 2010. We expect the Caribbean tourism industry to lag this recovery by six months or more, given the amount of time required for confidence in the economic upturn to take root. As such, arrivals are likely to remain subdued in the first half of 2010 and recover more strongly towards the end of the year, particularly after the hurricane season. While this recovery will not be a return to pre-2008 levels of growth, visitor arrival figures should steadily improve from the end of 2010.
Focus On St Vincent and the Grenadines
St Vincent and the Grenadines is one of the Caribbean’s most quintessential holiday destinations. As a result, it has historically been one of the most popular destinations in the Caribbean as a second home or retirement location, and also as a high-end holiday resort. It has suffered during the tourism industry downturn, with arrivals slumping by 13.2% y-o-y in the first three quarters of the year to 55,591, While not as bad as the downturn on islands such as Anguilla and Montserrat, St Vincent and the Grenadines is heavily dependent on tourism revenues and the downturn in arrivals has restricted the government budget and increased unemployment.
British Airways Strike Threatens Caribbean Christmas Season
On December 14 2009, the cabin crew of British Airways (BA) voted to hold strikes over the Christmas holiday season, starting on December 22 and running until January 2. This will have major repercussions for the Caribbean tourist industry. BA flies non-stop to 13 destinations in the region, including in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic and operates 45 flights per week. The reduction or cancellation of these flights over Christmas – one of the Caribbean’s peak holiday seasons – will affect hotels, resorts, cruise operators and smaller airlines in the region. BA is a major route into the region, with smaller airlines connecting other Caribbean islands to its 13 destinations. This means that all the islands in the Caribbean will suffer tourist cancellations, not just the 13 with direct BA connections. In addtion, cruise operators will lose a number of customers who would have arrived by plane, reducing revenues and arrivals at stopoff points on the cruise itinerary.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- Caribbean Tourism SWOT
- Caribbean Political SWOT
- Caribbean Economic SWOT
- Caribbean Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals And Accommodation
- Table: Arrivals And Accommodation, 2007-2014
- Expenditure
- Table: Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2006-2013
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Tourist Stopover Arrivals, 2009
- Table: Tourism On Individual Islands, 2007-2014
- Hurricane Season Damages Arrivals
- Focus: St Vincent and the Grenadines
Market Overview – Travel
- Commercial Airlines
- Increasing Competition
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
- Cruise Industry
- Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2007-2008
- Accommodation
- Luxury Hotels
Currency Forecast
- Table: Trinidad and Tobago Monetary Policy , 2007-2014
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Company Profiles
- Air Jamaica
- Royal Caribbean Cruises
- Sol Meliá
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Sources
- Air Jamaica
- Royal Caribbean Cruises
- Sol Meliá
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