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Turkey Tourism Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 58
Turkey Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
After growth in foreign visitor arrivals to Turkey slowed but remained strong in 2008, the number of visitors declined year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q109. Growth though picked up to about 2% y-o-y in Q209, while the most recent official data, for Q309, shows a modest rise in foreign arrivals, excluding Turkish citizens that live outside Turkey, of 2.6% y-o-y. During January-September 2009, BMI estimates that, on a cumulative basis, the number of foreign arrivals increased by just 1.8% y-o-y.
Hospitality
The latest hospitality sector data, for Q309, show the total number of foreign and domestic tourist room nights amounted to 134.6mn nights, an increase of 4.3% y-o-y. Foreign tourist room nights, 70% of the total, rose by 2.5% y-o-y to nearly 95mn nights in Q309. In the second quarter, foreign tourist room nights, almost 78% of the total, were up by 9% y-o-y to 52.6mn, and they increased by 10% y-o-y in Q109 to 31.1mn nights, 68% of the total.
Forecast Scenario
Taking account of recent data, which has surprised on the upside, BMI has edged up its forecast for foreign visitor arrivals. We now expect annual growth of 1.5%, compared with a decline in our previous forecast. Although this is a sharp deterioration from the 12.0% growth in arrivals in 2008, Turkey looks to have fared much better in 2009 than regional competitors such as Greece and Croatia, for which we forecast declines in arrivals in 2009 of 9% and 5%, respectively. A modest pick up in the growth rate of foreign arrivals to Turkey should occur in 2010. The weakness of the Turkish lira against the euro in 2009 appears to have assisted the competitiveness of Turkey’s tourism sector. This trend is expected to be reversed from 2010, constraining growth in foreign visitor arrivals over the next few years.
Turkish Airlines
The latest financial results for the first three quarters of 2009 show Turkey’s flag carrier, Turkish Airlines (THY), recorded a net profit of US$304mn, down by more than 40% y-o-y. Sales revenue decreased by 11% y-o-y to US$3.23bn. Operating profit stood at US$389mn, up by 5% compared with the same period in 2008. Passenger numbers for January-October 2009 show traffic increased by just over 10% y-o-y to 20.9mn travellers. The airline performed reasonably well in 2009, particularly considering a difficult operational environment.
Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International
Major domestic player Dedeman Hotels & Resorts International plans to open five new hotels during 2010 and 2011. These include properties in Turkey, Iran and Azerbaijan, including the Dedeman Bostanci Istanbul, the Dedeman Shiraz Iran and the Dedeman Baku.
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