United Arab Emirates Tourism Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, January 2010, Pages: 62
United Arab Emirates Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United Arab Emirates' tourism industry.
Tourism Overview
After strong growth in foreign visitor arrivals to the UAE in 2008, there was a mixed picture in H109. Arrivals were up slightly year-on-year (y-o-y) in Dubai but down sharply in Sharjah. In Abu Dhabi, during the first seven months of 2009, the number of hotel guest arrivals slipped by just 1% y-o-y. While figures from the hospitality sector on hotel occupancy levels in Abu Dhabi and Dubai during the first 10 months of 2009 suggest a very poor outturn in the tourism sector for the year as a whole. (We have also noticed that some recent data releases have been somewhat opaque). To counter the downturn and boost tourism in 2010 all the emirates are making considerable efforts with promotional campaigns.
Hospitality
The hospitality sector in the UAE experienced sharp falls in occupancy rates in 2009, although they remain relatively high compared with the rest of the region. In Dubai, figures for January-October 2009 show a significant fall of over 13% y-o-y in hotel occupancy rates to an average of 67.9%. In Abu Dhabi, over the same period, hotel occupancy rates declined by 9% y-o-y to just under 75%. In Sharjah, hotel occupancy rates during Q309 stood at 75%, up slightly compared with Q308, following occupancy rates of 64% in H109 – down 15% y-o-y.
Forecast Scenario
In response to poor hospitality data, we revised down our forecast for tourist arrivals to the UAE in 2009 to -5% y-o-y, down from negative growth of 2% y-o-y previously. The poor outlook for the sector in 2009 is based on the impact of severe recession in the US and key European economies – North America and Europe together accounted for an estimated 45% of total arrivals to the UAE in 2008 – and a significant slowdown in growth in the Middle East. Recovery in arrivals growth is anticipated in 2010 and will pick up from 2011, with robust growth expected over the forecast period through to 2014. The spread of the H1N1 virus (swine flu) has also deterred travel in the region, although at the beginning of December 2009 the UAE had reported a relatively low 79 cases and six deaths from the virus.
Emirates
The latest financial results for the first half of the financial year, ending September 30 2009, for the Dubai-based Emirates airline show it achieved a net profit of AED752mn (US$205mn), a substantial increase compared with AED284mn in the same period a year earlier. Total revenue declined by 13.5% yo- y to AED19.8bn (US$5.4bn), largely reflecting lower passenger and cargo yields; while total expenditure was down by 15.8% y-o-y to AED19bn (US$5.2bn), partly due to lower jet fuel prices.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
- UAE Tourism SWOT
- UAE Political SWOT
- UAE Economic SWOT
- UAE Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
- Arrivals
- Table: Arrivals Data, 2007-2014
- Accommodation
- Table: Accommodation Data, 2007-2014
- Expenditure
- Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2007-2014
- Inbound Tourism
- Table: Tourist Arrivals By Region, 2007-2014
- Outbound Tourism
- Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2007-2014
Market Overview – Travel
- Airports
- Commercial Airlines
- Table: Key Players – UAE Commercial Airlines, 2008
- Global Oil Products Price Outlook
- Table: Oil Product Price Assumptions, Q108-Q409 (US$/bbl)
- Table: Oil Product Prices, 2007-2014 (US$/bbl)
Market Overview – Hospitality
- Accommodation Developments
- Table: Selected Accommodation Projects
- Regional Case Study: Accor
- Table: Accor Hotel Business In Selected Middle East And Africa Countries, June 2009
Business Environment
- Middle East And Africa Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
- Tourism Infrastructure
- BMI’s Security Ratings
- Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
- Conflict Risk
- Terrorism Risk
- Physical Safety Risk
- Table: Middle East And North Africa State Terrorism Vulnerability Index
- Middle East And Africa Security Overview
UAE And Regional Monetary Rate Policies
- Table : GCC Currency Convergence Criteria
- Currency Forecast
- Table: UAE Exchange Rate Policy, 2005-2013
Global Assumptions
- Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
- Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
- Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
- Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Company Profiles
- Emirates
- Etihad Airways
- Abu Dhabi National Hotels
BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Tourism Industry
- Tourism Ratings – Methodology
- Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
- Table: Weighting of Components
- Sources
- Emirates
- Etihad Airways
- Abu Dhabi National Hotels
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