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Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 81
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's oil and gas industry.
The latest Bulgaria Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.19% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while making no meaningful contribution to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.18mn b/d in 2009. It should average 5.25mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 5.81mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.18mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.53mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 8.01mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.72mn b/d by 2014.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 589.2bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 677.2bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.9% growth. Production of an estimated 767.2bcm in 2009 should reach 934.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 177.9bcm in 2009 to 257.1bcm by the end of the period. Bulgaria’s share of consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.63%, while it has no significant share of production. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.82%. For 2009 as a whole, the publisher has assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast the publisher was using in the previous quarter. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Bulgarian real GDP is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 5.3% in 2009, compared with 5.8% growth in 2008. BMI are assuming average annual growth of 1.3% in 2010-2014. Oil demand beyond the weakness of 2009/10 is forecast to rise by up to 2.0% per annum, which suggests that consumption could reach 127,000b/d by 2014. Imports can be expected to grow in line, as exploration efforts in the largely privatised hydrocarbons sector by small international oil companies (IOCs) do not appear likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes. Gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. While gas output could reach 1.5bcm by 2014, demand is heading for 5.6bcm, requiring imports of 4.1bcm. Between 2009 and 2019, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Bulgarian oil consumption of 20.7%, with import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 116,000b/d in 2009 to 140,000b/d by the end of the 10- year forecast period. Gas production is expected to rise from the estimated 2009 level of 0.1bcm to a peak of 1.5bcm by 2014, before slipping to 1.1bcm by 2019. Import dependency therefore increases from the estimated 2009 level of 3.6bcm to 6.0bcm at the end of the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Bulgaria now claims fourth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. Its minimal oil and gas reserves, limited production potential and constrained competitive landscape work against the country, but are offset by reasonable country risk factors. There is little scope for further progress up the league table, while Russia and Romania represent threats from below. The country now holds last place in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect much near-term progress further up the rankings. Refining capacity is among the region’s lowest, while gas consumption is particularly modest. The relatively high level of retail site intensity represents another weak suit, although gas demand growth prospects are among the best in the CEE region.
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