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Croatia Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 67
Business Monitor International's Croatia Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's oil and gas industry.
The latest Croatia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 1.90% of Central and Eastern European (CEE) regional oil demand by 2014, while contributing very little to supply. CEE regional oil use of 4.65mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 5.18mn b/d in 2009. It should average 5.25mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 5.81mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 8.83mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 13.18mn b/d. It is set to rise to 14.53mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.18mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 8.01mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.72mn b/d by 2014.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 589.2bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 677.2bcm targeted for 2014, representing 14.9% growth. Production of an estimated 767.2bcm in 2009 should reach 934.2bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 177.9bcm in 2009 to 257.1bcm by the end of the period. Croatia’s share of gas consumption in 2009 was an estimated 0.80%, while its share of production is put at 0.47%. By 2014, its share of demand is forecast to be 0.96%, with the country accounting for 0.32% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, BMI have assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast they were using in the previous quarter. For 2010, BMI expect to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Croatian real GDP is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 5.1% in 2009, compared with 2.4% growth in 2008. BMI are assuming average annual growth of 1.6% in 2010-2014. Consumption of oil is set to grow more slowly than the underlying economy, increasing by less than 1.5% per annum over the forecast period and reaching a forecast 110,000b/d by 2014. Imports are therefore set to rise from an estimated 86,000b/d in 2009 to no more than 100,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. Partly privatised state oil group INA is attempting to raise local supply in partnership with major shareholder MOL, but BMI expect to see a steady decline in crude production, from the estimated 2009 level of 14,000b/d to no more than 10,000b/d by 2014. They expect gas output to have peaked at 4bcm in 2008, before starting to decline. Consumption is forecast to rise from an estimated 4.7bcm in 2009 to 6.5bcm by 2014, requiring imports of 3.5bcm.
Between 2009 and 2019, BMI are forecasting an increase in Croatian oil consumption of 18.9%, with crude import volumes rising steadily from an estimated 86,000b/d to 112,000b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Gas production is expected to fall from an estimated 3.6bcm in 2009 to 2.5bcm by 2019. Import dependency therefore increases to 5.4bcm during the period. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Croatia now shares 10th place with Turkmenistan in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating. Its minimal oil and gas reserves and poor production outlook work against the country, but are offset somewhat by privatisation progress and reasonable country risk factors. There is limited long-term scope for Croatia to pull away from its low-scoring rival, with Turkmenistan much more likely to leave Croatia behind. The country is well in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with few particularly high scores and no reason to expect near-term progress further up the rankings. Oil and gas demand are among the region’s lowest, as is the oil demand growth outlook. Population, nominal GDP and growth in GDP per capita are also low-scoring areas for the country. Croatia shares 11th place with Slovakia, ahead only of Bulgaria.
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