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Zambia Mining Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 49
Zambia Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Zambia's mining industry.
In September 2009, Zambian President Rupiah Banda defended the scrapping of the mining windfall tax in the annual state of the nation address to parliament. Banda rejected claims that the country will lose revenue as a result because another 15% variable profit tax rate remains in place. He also said the government intends to promote investment in the small-scale mining and marketing of gemstones, to broaden the tax base and create new jobs.
In November 2009, the new managing director of Lumwana Mining, Adam Wright, described Zambia’s current tax regime as ‘encouraging’ to investment in the mining sector, local media reported. Wright also said there had been a consistent increase in copper concentrate during every quarter of 2009, with the Lumwana mine likely to produce over 100,000 tonnes of copper concentrate in the year.
New Data For 2010, the authors have made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting.
Experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensure that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.
Country Overview Zambia has a vast amount of metals, gemstones, industrial minerals and potential energy resources, including coal, hydrocarbons and uranium. For several years, Zambia’s economy has been based on mining, particularly copper, cobalt and zinc. Globally, the country is the seventh largest producer of copper and second largest of cobalt. Zambia is widely regarded as a low-risk investment destination and has attracted high levels of foreign investment in recent years. The government has concluded drafting a revised mineral empowerment policy that aims to stimulate greater participation of Zambian nationals in the country’s vast mining industry. The government also plans to develop large mining assets in all major provinces to create greater employment opportunities, which would address growing concerns about the uneven distribution of mining wealth.
Industry Forecast Despite the difficulties facing the global mining industry, Zambian copper production was actually up by 31.25% year-on-year (y-o-y) in January-July 2009, reaching 442,322 tonnes. With cobalt production also set to receive a boost from the restarting of the Chambishi Metals smelter, this bodes well for the wider mining industry outlook in 2010. Zambia has long been considered a stable investment destination, with good mining sector regulations.
Our forecasts estimate an average annual growth rate of 3.6% for the Zambian mining sector over our forecast period to 2014, and believe copper and cobalt will remain key production sectors.
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