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Zimbabwe Mining Report Q1 2010


Description: Zimbabwe Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Zimbabwe's mining industry.

The geology of Zimbabwe is very richly endowed. Of the 40 known metals and minerals that it is home to: gold, platinum and chrome form the principal endowments. The country’s gold reserves are among the largest in Africa, while it hosts the second largest platinum reserves in the world. Another segment that has caught the attention of miners in Zimbabwe, is diamonds after the discovery of a number of significant kimberlites.

Latest News In September 2009, there was a renewed focus on mining on the part of the government. President Robert Mugabe and Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai both made speeches stating that the country would be looking to review its Mines and Minerals Act by year-end 2009. At the same time, it is likely that the country will implement ‘rational’ mining royalties and taxes and take moves to deregulate the sector, according to Tsvangirai. Bloomberg has quoted Tsvangirai as saying the nation currently has a ‘window of opportunity’ to prepare a conducive policy environment by mid-2010. Present royalty levels stand at 10% for diamonds, 3% for gold and 1% for coal. There is also an expectation that the country will now speed up the approval of mine licences, as it looks to restart activity within this key economic sector. However, there were no new announcements on this subject by mid-December, when this report went to press.

It remains to be seen how any amendments to national mining policy will deal with the issue of black empowerment. The previous policy of the Zanu-PF government was that local investors should hold a 51% stake in all Zimbabwean mining activity. However, this has been rejected by mining companies, which say they should be allowed to set lower empowerment stakes, with a maximum ceiling of 40%, according to reports in the local media. Tsvangirai has said that any new programme of black empowerment should be implemented in line with international norms and should not discriminate against non-black Zimbabweans. In the authors view, there is a pressing need to negotiate with mining companies and thereby resolve the issue of mining ownership, so foreign investors can work within a clear legal framework.

New Data For 2010, the authors have made significant changes to the way in which we forecast mining data. As well as using local statistics agencies and associations, we now also draw on the expertise of the UN’s Industrial Commodity Statistics Database, the US Geological Survey and the World Bureau of Metal Statistics for our historical export and production data. We then forecast this data using our own proprietary econometric model. Human intervention also plays a necessary and desirable role in our mining forecasting; experience, expertise and knowledge of industry trends and developments ensuring that we can spot likely future changes and anomalous data that a purely mechanical model would not.

Industry Forecast Zimbabwe’s mining sector has experienced a traumatic series of years over the past decade. However, there are reasons for guarded optimism as we enter 2010. Investment is returning to the sector, following the establishment of a national unity government. The 2009 liberalisation of the gold sector was a further positive.

Consequently, we believe the scene is set for a period of strong growth for the Zimbabwean mining sector, although we would stress that this remains dependent on a continuation of the relative political stability that has endured in recent months.


Contents: Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Zimbabwe Political SWOT
Zimbabwe Economic SWOT
Zimbabwe Business Environment SWOT

Industry Trends And Developments
Overview
Regulatory Structure And Developments
Mining Seen As Key To Recovery

Key Projects
Metals
Iron
Gold
Chrome
Nickel
Platinum
Minerals
Coal
Diamonds

Business Environment
Africa Mining Overview
Table: Africa Mining Business Environment Ratings
Zimbabwe’s Business Environment Rating
Legal Framework
Labour Force
Table: Zimbabwe’s Demographic Indicators, 2000-2030
Foreign Investment Policy

Political Environment

Industry Forecast Scenario
Aluminium Price Outlook
Table: BMI’s Aluminium Price Forecast, 2009 And 2010
Table: Aluminium Outlook, 2005-2010
Copper Price Outlook
Table: BMI’s Copper Forecast, 2009 And 2010
Table: Copper Outlook, 2005-2010
Commodities Outlook
Table: BMI’s Gold Forecast, 2009 And 2010
Global Industry Overview
Regional Overview
Zimbabwe’s Mining Industry Forecast
Table: Zimbabwe’s Mining Industry, 2007-2014

Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In Zimbabwe’s Mining Sector

Company Monitor
African Consolidated Resources
Caledonia Mining Corporation
Hwange Colliery Company (HCC)
Zimbabwe Platinum Mines (Zimplats)

Appendices
Appendix A: Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2008-2011 (%)
Table: Global Assumptions, 2008-2014
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2008-2011 (average)
Appendix B: Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Components


Companies Mentioned - African Consolidated Resources - Caledonia Mining Corporation - Hwange Colliery Company (HCC) - Zimbabwe Platinum Mines (Zimplats)


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