|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Netherlands Metals Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 47
The Netherlands Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Netherlands' metals industry.
The Netherlands’ emergence from recession in Q309 had an immediate impact on steel production with producers ramping up furnace capacity utilization, according to the latest Netherlands Metals Report. This was bolstered by the resumption of production at Corus Groups’ IJmuiden blast furnace to satisfy a rise in orders. Rising automotive sales increased demand, with IJmuiden – at a total output capacity of 7mn tonnes per annum (tpa) –a key supplier of hot rolled, cold rolled and metallic-coated steels to car producers and automotive suppliers. In August, Tata Steel, Corus’s parent company, stated that it would raise its European production capacity utilisation from 50% to 80%, providing yet more hope of an upturn in output. Most of this upturn is attributed to an improvement in export markets rather than domestic orders. Meanwhile, demand for long products has stabilised at a low level, and while demand for stainless steel longs is growing, prices are still under pressure in this segment.
In H209, crude steel output was up 74% over H109 and up 10% over H208 at 3.35mn tonnes, as inventories were depleted in the Netherlands, France and Germany. Growth was largely due to the effect of a poor performance in Q408. Demand from the automotive industry is still volatile amid an uncertain market environment following the conclusion of several car scrappage schemes in major export markets, such as the UK, France and Germany. Consequently, flat products are in a vulnerable position, with the publisher expecting Dutch flats output to remain lacklustre throughout 2010.
The publisher believes crude steel output will grow 6% in 2010 with compound annual growth of 6.6% in the following four years, largely due to an expected surge in 2011. By 2014, annual crude steel output should be back to pre-recession levels at over 7mn tonnes. Hot-rolled output will follow a similar trajectory, although a significant proportion will be exported for processing elsewhere. Construction-related steel products such as rebar and wire rod are unlikely to return to previous levels over the next five years, despite a rebound from 2011 as construction is revived.
Growth will be largely driven by demand elsewhere in Europe. Given the Netherlands' dependence on exports, there is a risk of contagion if growth in the US was to drop in 2011 more significantly than we currently forecast, particularly if this fed through into a renewed collapse in demand for, and the price of, plastic products. However, this is not our core scenario. On the positive side, the size and integration of the Dutch steel industry enables economies of scale, which means it will sustain interest of investors in some segments where global market conditions are favourable. While the report does not envisage significant new capacity in the Netherlands in the next five years, producers will focus on upgrading existing production capacities in order to enhance competitiveness.
In the aluminium sector, plans to raise annual capacity at the Vlissingen aluminium smelter by 30,000tpa to 290,000tpa are likely to be put on hold until the European market recovers to 2007 levels of demand. The publisher doubts that output will recover to pre-recession levels over the next five years, raising the prospect of permanent capacity closures. Automotive production, a major market for Dutch aluminium, is likely to be mostly concentrated on small cars and to be limited to 1.90mn units by 2014. This will in turn limit domestic demand for both steel and aluminium flat products.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Netherlands Metals Report Q2 2012
Netherlands Metals Report Q4 2011
Netherlands Metals Report Q3 2010
Netherlands Metals Report Q1 2011
Belgium Metals Report Q4 2011
Netherlands Metals Report Q4 2010
Belgium Metals Report Q1 2012
Netherlands Metals Report Q4 2009
Belgium Metals Report Q1 2011
Russia Metals Report Q4 2010
|
|
|
|
