|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Russia Metals Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 58
The Russia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's metals industry.
Russian steel output may have suffered from a massive decline in orders in 2009, but the long-term prospects for the steel industry are good, while the aluminium sector looks set to face significant hurdles to growth, according to the latest Russia Metals Report.
Steelmakers in Russia have suffered from a massive decline in orders from the construction and automotive sectors. In the first 10 months of 2009, Russian crude steel output plunged 22.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 61.47mn tonnes. However, H209 saw a steady improvement in output, with monthly production reaching 5.61mn tonnes in October, up 43% over January, 24% on the previous October and close to the average monthly output reported in 2008. The publisher estimates that crude output fell 12.6% to 59.86mn tonnes in 2009, with quarterly output up 44.5% y-o-y to 17.59mn tonnes in Q4. In turn, apparent crude consumption was down 11.9% to 42.55mn tonnes. Hot rolled output fell 14.7% to 47.88mn tonnes as cold-rollers experienced a sharp drop in orders with finished steel consumption down by around 15.6% to 34.68mn tonnes. We forecast that by 2014, crude steel output should reach 78.4mn tonnes (up 14.4% over 2008), finished steel consumption will reach 48.19mn tonnes (up 17.3% over 2008) and hot rolled production will total 63.16mn tonnes (up 12.7% over 2008). Performance has been heavily influenced by the domestic automotive and construction industries. In recent years, surging car production has helped boost demand for steel and aluminium products. The recession has brought an abrupt halt to this trend, impacting flat products used for panels most severely. The construction sector has not escaped the effects of recession. The publisher anticipated that the contraction in construction industry value real growth in the second half of the year would be less steep, but still a painful -9.7%, bringing the final figure for the year to -12% industry value real growth. Our outlook for 2010 onwards forecasts real growth of 2.5%.
Russian exports of aluminium fell 1.6% y-o-y in the first 10 months of 2009 to 2.86mn tonnes. The US dollar value of exports plummeted 36% y-o-y to US$4.06bn, due in large part to the decline in the price of aluminium. Towards the end of 2009, RusAl stated it was not prepared to restart idled capacity, having curtailed output by 500,000 tonnes per annum (tpa) or 11% of capacity in February. However, it predicted aluminium demand growth of 15-20% in 2010 driven by sales for commercial vehicles.
A serious accident at a turbine room at the Sayano Shushenskaya hydroelectric plant in mid-2009 disrupted power supply to two smelters in Siberia, leading to the potential loss of at least 500,000 tonnes of annual aluminium production. RusAl executives have indicated that it could take two to three years for electricity supply to return to normal. In 2008, the Sayanogorsk smelter produced 532,000 tonnes of aluminium, exceeding its design capacity of 520,000 tonnes, while the Khakassia plant, at the same site, produced at full capacity of 297,000 tonnes. Combined production at the two plants in 2008 was 829,000 tonnes. While the loss of output will not pose a problem for RusAl while it seeks to reduce output, it will hamper the company’s ability to take full advantage of a recovery in the aluminium market and its growth potential will be severely curtailed. The shut-down of the electricity plant also impacts on power supply to Evraz’s Siberian steelworks NKMK and ZSMK, although the effects are not thought to be as severe or long-lasting as they have been for RusAl’s facilities. More broadly, the decline in overall electricity output will create a tight power supply market, putting upward pressure on costs for aluminium smelters and EAFs.
In the steel industry, confidence remains high. MMK has moved ahead with a number of investment projects during the current downturn, allowing it to increase sales of high value added steel. It expected to have capital expenditure of US$1.5bn in 2009 and US$1.7bn in 2010. Revenue should be boosted by a 5,000mm plate mill that was commissioned in 2009 and will reach full capacity in 2010, supplying thick steel for large diameter pipes as well as ships and bridges.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Russia Metals Report Q1 2012
Russia Metals Report Q1 2011
Russia Metals Report Q4 2010
Russia Metals Report Q4 2009
Russia Metals Report Q4 2011
Ukraine Metals Report Q4 2010
Russian Steel and Rolled Steel Production, Market (1998-2011) and Forecast (until 2020)
Russia's Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Metals Holdings at a Glance
Ukraine Metals Report Q1 2010
Ukraine Metals Report Q3 2010
|
|
|
|
