|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Sweden Metals Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 51
The Sweden Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Sweden's metals industry.
Swedish metals production should begin its recovery in earnest in H210, but the latest Sweden Metals Report expects the transition from ordinary steel to niche products in the steel industry to continue, particularly with the demise of Swedish carmaker Saab – a key domestic consumer of aluminium and steel. The report estimates that Swedish crude steel output fell 46.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 2.8mn tonnes. This followed an 8.4% y-o-y drop in output to 5.2mn tonnes in 2008, when production was badly hit by the economic crisis. Meanwhile, Sweden’s only primary aluminium smelter Kubal reduced production by 50% in 2009. In the flat steel sector, hot-rolled coil and coated steel showed signs of revival in Q309, but cold-rolled steel and plate are yet to increase.
The market situation for Swedish metals producers is uncertain, although the publisher anticipates output growth in 2010. Despite a certain degree of stabilisation, there is continued uncertainty regarding the pace of recovery. End customers in some segments and regions still report weak demand while, for example, wind power and other energy sectors appear brighter. There were also serious problems in the country’s truck manufacturing sector while construction activity has fallen markedly. Activity levels in the housing market and levels of spending on consumer durables are likely to remain low through H109 due to anticipation of further prices falls and tightening credit conditions, prompting a sharp slowdown in domestic consumption of steel and aluminium.
The publisher forecasts a 10% rise in crude steel output to 3.04mn tonnes in 2009, with a recovery beginning in earnest in H210. However, we do not envisage a return to pre-recession levels of output over the next five years, despite a surge in production of nearly 30% in 2011. By 2014, crude steel output should total 4.18mn tonnes. Hot-rolled output should follow similar trends, falling 48% in 2009 to 2.68mn tonnes before growing 9.5% to 2.94mn tonnes in 2010 and ending the forecast period on 4.21mn tonnes. In terms of primary aluminium production, we forecast a 51% y-o-y drop to around 47,450 tonnes, but the industry should see high levels of growth from this low base with output up 17% in 2010 and 39% in 2011. By 2014, the publisher forecasts output at around 92,600 tonnes, which is still 4.2% down on 2008 levels. We caution that the most likely alternate scenario to our core forecast is for a ‘double-dip’ recession, with a mild recovery in H110 preceding a return to negative growth in H210. In this event, the recovery process would be prolonged, resulting in years of below-trend growth.
With capacity utilisation at 50-55%, Outokumpu’s stainless steel deliveries were down 26.3% y-o-y to 238,000 tonnes in Q309 and in terms of value sales were down 53.8% y-o-y to EUR587mn. Outokumpu’s operating loss totalled EUR65mn. In response to poor results, Outokumpu decided not to proceed with its investment project to expand the melting capacity in Avesta in the foreseeable future as it claimed there was no need for additional melting capacity in the medium-term. This project was part of the investment programme that was launched in 2007-2008, but almost totally postponed in December 2008. Further decisions on the other postponed investments will be made by the end of 2010, said the firm. SSAB reported that its Q309 sales were down 48% y-o-y to SEK6.94bn (EUR13.4bn), with an operating loss of SEK936mn (EUR2.64mn). In the first nine months of 2009, its sales were down 48% y-o-y to SEK21.55bn (EUR41.27bn) with an operating profit of SEK2.02bn (EUR8.54bn). Deliveries increased by 21% q-o-q in Q309 largely due to a recovery in its North America unit. SSAB’s investment strategy remains unchanged, although the pace of investments has temporarily slowed and the timing is continuously reviewed. In total, capital expenditures during 2009 were estimated at around SEK2bn, primarily for further development of production of quenched steels in Borlänge and Mobile.'
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Sweden Metals Report Q4 2011
Sweden Metals Report Q1 2011
Sweden Metals Report Q4 2010
Sweden Metals Report Q3 2009
Sweden Metals Report Q1 2012
Sweden Metals Report Q2 2011
Sweden Metals Report Q3 2010
Sweden Metals Report Q4 2009
Steel - Global Strategic Business Report
Romania Metals Report Q4 2011
|
|
|
|
