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Bahrain Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 52
Business Monitor International's Bahrain Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bahrain's retail industry.
BMI’s Q110 Bahrain Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from an estimated US$2.65bn in 2009 to US$5.65bn by 2014. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Bahrain’s retail sales are a favourable long-term economic outlook, growing interest in Western styles of retailing, and a steady rise in disposable income.
Bahrain’s nominal GDP was US$15.10bn in 2009, with the decline of 0.1% expected to turn into growth of 1.3% in 2010 as the economy slowly begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 3.5% is predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population forecast to increase from 1.01mn in 2009 to 1.09mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted to rise to US$26,855.
Statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Information’s tourism affairs division show that tourist arrivals have risen by an average of 10-15% a year over the past three years. In 2007, Bahrain attracted 5.5mn tourists, 4.9mn of them from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. Tourism arrivals are projected to rise by an average of 2.5% per annum over the next decade. Bahrain’s retail market will also continue to benefit from events such as the annual Formula One grand prix in Sakhir, which has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenues since it became a fixture on the racing calendar in 2004.
In 2005, 71.2% of the Bahraini population was described by the UN as economically active, with 40.7% in the crucial (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. By 2010, 72.7% of the population is expected to be economically active, but the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to fall to 39.9%. A very high level of urbanisation is contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 90% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 91% by 2010. About 89% of the population live in the two principal cities of Manama and Muharraq.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include automotives, with sales forecast to rise by more than 43% during the period, from US$0.87bn in 2009 to US$1.25bn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$0.44bn in 2009 to US$0.55bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of nearly 24.5%. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to increase by more than 15%, from US$0.013bn in 2009 to US$0.014bn by 2014.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$407.66bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$704.94bn. In 2009, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 78.4% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 81.3% by 2014. For Bahrain, the estimated 2009 market share of 0.7% is expected to increase to 0.9% by 2014.
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