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Egypt Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 49
Business Monitor International's Egypt Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's retail industry.
BMI’s Q110 Egypt Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$76.40bn in 2009 to US$141.66bn by 2014. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Egypt’s retail sales are an extremely large and youthful population, the emergence of a more affluent middle class, a vibrant tourism industry and the growing acceptance of modern retail concepts.
Egypt’s nominal GDP was US$189.80bn in 2009, with growth in 2010 set to slow further, from 4.7% in 2009 to 3.5% as the economy struggles to regain its pre-crisis vigour. Average annual GDP growth of 4.9% is forecast by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 78mn in 2009 to an estimated 84mn by the end of the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 72% by that time, reaching US$4,201.
Egypt’s substantial population makes it the largest market in the Arab world, with the population of the Cairo area alone over 15mn people in 2008. Alexandria is also a very sizeable city, with a population of over 4mn.
In 2005, 63.3% of the Egyptian population was described by the UN as economically active, with 36.3% in the crucial (for retail sales) 20-44 age range. By 2010, 65.1% of the population is expected to be active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to reach 37.4%.
Increasing urbanisation is also contributing to growth in the retail sector. In 2005, 42.3% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to 43.2% by 2010. The country’s retail market also benefits from high tourist spending, with official data showing that foreign tourist arrivals totalled almost 12.8mn in 2008, a 19% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase. Despite a 5.5% drop in tourist arrivals in the first nine months of 2009, and a 6.4% drop in tourism revenue, Egypt has an enduring historical appeal that should sustain its competitiveness compared to other holiday destinations. Although BMI expects the tourist market to remain subdued over the next two years, we estimate that visitor numbers will increase further, to nearly 18mn, by the end of the forecast period. Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include over the counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to more than double, from US$0.42bn in 2009 to US$0.84bn by 2014. Automotives sales are forecast to rise by more than 148% from US$9.48bn in 2009 to US$23.54bn by 2014, while sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$2.86bn in 2009 to US$5.18bn, a rise of more than 80%.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$407.66bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$704.94bn. In 2009, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 78.4% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 81.3% by 2014. For Egypt, the estimated 2009 market share of 18.7% is expected to rise to 22.3% by 2014.
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