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Kuwait Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Kuwait Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's retail industry.
BMI’s Q110 Kuwait Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from US$41.59bn in 2009 to US$59.27bn by 2014. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Kuwait’s retail sales are a favourable long-term economic outlook, a sophisticated consumer base and high levels of disposable income.
Kuwait’s nominal GDP was US$113.38bn in 2009, with 2009’s decline of 2.4% expected to translate into growth of 2.0% in 2010 as the economy slowly begins to recover. Average annual GDP growth of 2.0% is now predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population rising from its 3.2mn in 2009 to reach 3.5mn by the end of the forecast period, GDP per capita is predicted to rise by more than 53% by 2014, reaching US$53,950.
Approximately 80% of the Kuwaiti population are expatriates, while foreign workers crossing the border from Iraq also stimulate the retail market.
In 2005, 73.8% of the Kuwaiti population was described by the UN as economically active, with 37.9% in the 20-44 age range, important to retail sales. By 2010, 74.6% of the population is expected to be active, while the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band is forecast to reach 39.4%.
A very high level of urbanisation is also contributing to a vibrant retail sector. In 2005, more than 96% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to almost 99% by 2015. According to Arabianbusiness.com, by 2010 the gross leasable area (GLA) in Kuwait’s retail sector is expected to total 1.15mn m2, compared with the 345,000m2 in use in 2006. Property consultant Colliers International expects Kuwait to have the third -largest supply of retail space in the Gulf by 2010. According to BMI data, retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include consumer electronics, with sales increasing from US$0.68bn in 2009 to US$0.95bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of nearly 39%. Sales of over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical products are predicted to increase by more than 36%, from US$1.40bn in 2009 to US$1.90bn by 2014. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by nearly 15%, from US$3.31bn in 2009 to US$3.80bn by 2014.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$407.66bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$704.94bn. In 2009, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 78.4% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 81.3% by 2014. For Kuwait, the estimated 2009 regional market share of 10.2% is expected to ease to 9.3% by 2014.
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