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Turkey Retail Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 56
Business Monitor International's Turkey Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Turkey's retail industry.
BMI’s Q110 Turkey Retail Report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from about US$208bn in 2009 to more than US$452bn by 2014. Underlying economic growth, an expanding population, especially in urban areas; rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Turkish retail sales. Turkey’s nominal GDP was US$611.90bn in 2009, with last year’s decline of 6.2% expected to translate into growth of 3.4% in 2010 as the economy begins to improve. Average annual GDP growth of 2.7% is now predicted by BMI between 2009 and 2014. With the population increasing from 72.2mn in 2009 to an estimated 76.6mn by 2014, GDP per capita is forecast to more than double to US$17,244 by the end of the forecast period. Our forecast for consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$5,015 in 2009 to US$7,641 by 2014.
Salaries in Turkey remain low, with BMI estimating the 2007 average annual wage at US$5,848. However, Turkey has a large, growing and young population. Each year, 750,000 young people join the workforce and, with an increasing level of urbanisation, many are abandoning the agricultural sector in order to seek better paid work in other areas. Nevertheless, unemployment is a problem, reaching an estimated 15.0% by the end of 2009. We forecast that this will start to fall in 2010, ending the forecast period at 8.0%.
In 2005, 65.8% of the Turkish population was described by the UN as economically active, with 41.0% in the 20-44 age range, which is important for retail sales. Just over two-thirds of the population was classified by the UN as urban (67.3%). By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have reached almost 72%, with 43.8% in the 20-44 age band and 69.1% of the population is expected to be active. BMI has calculated that organised retail accounted for an estimated US$77.75bn of overall sales in 2009, rising to a forecast US$144.26bn by 2014, an annual average growth rate of 7.9%.
Using BMI Food and Drink service data, we identify a food and drink market share in 2009 of 22.9%. Over the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted by BMI to increase from US$1.05bn in 2009 to US$2.27bn towards the end of the forecast period, a rise of 115%.
Automotive sales are forecast to rise by more than 52% to US$12.77bn by 2014. Sales of consumer electronics products are forecast to increase by nearly 57%, from US$7.74bn in 2009 to US$12.14bn before 2014.
Retail sales for the BMI universe of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in 2009 amounted to an estimated US$1,053bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database amounts to US$2,134bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland together accounted for an estimated 82% of regional retail sales in 2009, with their combined share expected to exceed 87% by 2014. For Turkey, the estimated 2009 market share of 19.8% is expected to rise to 22.9% by 2014.
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