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Spain Agribusiness Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 47
Business Monitor International's Spain Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Spain's agribusiness service.
Spain is to hold the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2010 and Agricultural Minister Elena Espinosa is likely to use the period to raise calls for higher levels of EU support to its farmers as the reform of the costly Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) continues through the outlook period. In November 2009 armies of farmers took to the streets of Madrid to protest against low food prices, which they claim are taking them to the brink of 'financial ruin'. According to farmers, the prices of inputs - including machinery, fertilisers and seeds - have risen, while conversely, BMI has reported at length plunging prices in output markets, particularly dairy, wheat, sugar and grains. Furthermore, the country is a major producer of olive oil and, according to farmers in Extremadura, South West Spain, the production costs of producing a kilogram of olive oil is three times higher than the price.
According to the country's most notable farmers' federations, farmers saw a drop in real income of 26% in the eight years to 2008, while 124,000 jobs disappeared as costs rose by 34% over the same time. Further exacerbating the situation, they believe, are the intermediaries that make the largest gains by marking up significantly on farm-gate prices. Indeed, there is an argument for a degree of regulation to help the profits between producers and sellers to be distributed more equally. A period of minimum guaranteed purchase prices may be just the tonic; forcing buyers to toe the line, while raising sentiment among growers.
Aquacultural production has become increasingly important to the Spanish economy in recent years, providing over 265,000 tonnes of seafood, creating jobs in the process. The potential for the sector to swell to 2014 will be boosted by national campaigns aimed at promoting the benefits of consuming seafood. Aquaculture can also help Spain sustain more environmentally friendly fishing practices as the country has been criticised, along with other EU producers, regarding its reluctance to cease fishing and selling the endangered blue-fin tuna. Export markets for the fish may become increasingly difficult to find if the threats of sanctions by consuming countries are enacted, which makes the case for aquaculture even more appealing.
Regardless of the CAP reforms, we expect impressive gains in grains production to 2014; corn, wheat and barley output will expand by 30.28%; 51.50% and 90.02% respectively. Conducive weather, topography and increased plantings will lend well to the robust outlook and unlike in the EU's other notable producers, where low price fundamentals will result in reduced harvested area, we believe that Spanish farmers will improve productivity in accordance with its comparative advantage in grains production. Consumption growth across the range of farmed products covered in this report will be modest. A notable exception being cheese; a high value dairy product and one which we expect to become more and more popular with increasingly affluent households. Generally, Spain has a comparatively sparsely populated landscape and, as such, growth in staple foods broadly fits in line with population growth, as well as the shift from low to middle income consumer groups.
Sugar and rice are both forecast massive contractions over the forecast period, despite bullish price outlooks for both. Sugar will suffer from a fall in domestic demand as health consciousness becomes an increasing consideration among developed countries. Rice output will contract as its cultivation represents a marked drain on domestic water resources.
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