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China Automotive Market – Forecasts to 2016
just-auto, Feb 2010, Pages: 80
With the world’s economies in turmoil, China’s star continues to rise, but it has certainly not been immune from the global crisis - in 2008, car sales growth in China slowed to a single-digit rate for the first time since the turn of the century.
It has only taken some government sales incentives to kick the growth curve sharply upwards in the latter half of 2009. As a result, China ended the year as the world’s largest car market, ahead of the US – several years ahead of when most analysts predicted this would happen.
With over 23,000 words and 13 data tables, this report provides a definitive overview of where the Chinese auto market is right now, and where it is likely to be heading - with detailed analysis of all major domestic and foreign players' performances and activities. Written by just-auto's developing markets expert, Mark Bursa, this is an invaluable reference point for any car maker, OE supplier or company supporting the Chinese auto industry.
The report provides historic and forecast sales volumes for the major foreign and domestic car makes in China, including Vehicle sales forecasts for major automotive joint ventures to 2015.
Starting with a brief history of the market, the report discusses the structure, foreign direct investment (FDI), promotion of future technologies, geographical structure of the industry, and concludes by reviewing the activities of all major domestic and foreign car makers.
Chapter 1 Introduction
The report kicks off with an overview of factors contributing to where the market is right now and how it may perform over the next year.
Chapter 2 Current market position
Demand may have slowed in China, but it's still there. Passenger car sales in 2008 rose 7.27% to 6.76m vehicles, though sales fell heavily toward the end of the year. This chapter provides full analysis of the market's current position, which has been tricky to determine given how fluid recent times have been. The chapter provides 2007 and 2008 domestic sales by make and leading brands' car and commercial vehicle sales for 2009 to date. The numbers are analysed, together with our thoughts on short-term future growth drivers.
Chapter 3 Brief history of the Chinese auto industry
Until 1986, the Chinese auto industry had focused entirely on truck production. But in 1986 a shortage of foreign currency, caused partly by the import of cars, prompted a decision to shift priorities to car manufacturing. This chapter reviews the key points in China's recent car manufacturing industry and discusses issues such as how the nation has managed inward investment and capacity. Data in this chapter includes Chinese manufacturers' 2009 production to date.
Chapter 4 Current industry structure
There are still more than 100 vehicle makers in the country, but many are extremely small. The Chinese auto industry is still highly fragmented, and has grown up on a regional, not national basis. This chapter unpicks how the industry is structured and looks at key issues such as brand consolidation and intellectual property.
Chapter 5 Overseas investments
Chinese vehicle makers have made tentative steps toward acquiring overseas brands as an alternative to growing their own brands. This has not been an easy process. Here, we look at Tengzhong's acquisition of Hummer, Geely’s bid for Volvo, and Beijing Automotive's investment in Saab.
Chapter 6 Promotion of future technologies
The National Development and Reform Commission has mapped out a plan which includes cutting consumption taxes on low-emission and economical cars and supporting the development of hybrid and electric vehicles.
The Chinese government has announced one of the largest EV test programmes yet seen, involving 10,000 vehicles. Backed by the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, 10,000 hybrid, electric and fuel-cell vehicles will be put on trial in more than ten cities in China by 2010.
Chapter 7 Geographical distribution of the Chinese auto industry
The bulk of China’s auto production is concentrated along the country’s eastern coast, notably around Shanghai, Tianjin, Beijing and Changchun, down to Guangzhou and Shenzhen in the south. Other major production centres exist in central China, mainly in Hubei Province and its capital Wuhan, and further west around Chongqing. There are calls for consolidation within the market, creating automotive ‘hubs’ – but demand is so great it’s unlikely that any of the existing regional production centres will disappear. This chapter reports on activity in the following regions:
- East China – Shanghai and Nanjing
- Central China – Wuhan and Hubei Province
- Northeast China – Beijing and Tianjin
- The south – Guangzhou and Shenzhen
- The far north – Changchun, Harbin and Jilin Province
- Chongqing – the gateway to western China
Chapter 8 Domestic manufacturers
Chinese vehicle makers' sales and top model sales are provided for 2007 and 2008. This chapter profiles all of the major indigenous manufacturers and their leading models, from Chery's QQ to Geely's Freedom Ship, Brilliance's Splendor to Great Wall's Wingle and Coolbear.
Chapter 9 Overseas manufacturers
As per chapter 8, this chapter provides the same level of data and analysis, but for the world's overseas manufacturers' operations in China.
Chapter 10 Conclusions
Here the report offers just-auto's predictions as to how the Chinese market will likely play out and to what extent Chinese manufacturers will expand, both domestically and internationally.
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