|
|
 |
|
Viewing report
|
|
|
|
Taiwan Metals Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Jan 2010, Pages: 46
Business Monitor International's Taiwan Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's metals industry.
Although the global financial crisis and the decline in the Chinese market are by no means over, the Asian steel markets have almost certainly bottomed out. The Taiwanese are slowly becoming more optimistic as the Chinese government’s stimulus package and increased liquidity continues to lift metals market across East Asia. On the strength of Chinese-led regional demand, as well as its fiscal ability to continue stimulus spending if necessary, BMI has revised up its export forecast and now expects Taiwan to hit 9.73mn tonnes as early as 2011, on a par with pre-crisis levels. BMI expects the island to outpace this volume year-on-year (y-o-y), reaching 11.78mn tonnes by 2014. Finished steel use will recover to 2008 levels by 2012, hitting 20.63mn tonnes, and will increase to 24.6mn tonnes in 2014, up 12.33% on 2008. However, Taiwan’s crude steel output has been fluctuating month-on-month (m-o-m) in 2009, with 1.24mn tonnes produced in October, an 18.31% decline on the previous year. Output reached 3.68mn tonnes in Q309, a fall of 26.4% y-o-y but a 6.2% gain on the previous quarter. Taiwanese steelmaker, China Steel Corporation (CSC) predictably revealed that it has postponed repairs to its No. 1 furnace to January 2010, which means that the 1.9mn tonne-capacity furnace will probably resume production by mid-2010. The delay may help ease the potential glut in supply that was increasingly anticipated this quarter but will be offset by CSC subsidiary Dragon Steel Corporation’s production start in February 2010, which will add 2.5mn tonnes to existing capacity.
China’s economic promise did not disappoint this quarter and Taiwan, along with all steelmakers in the Asian nexus, have immediately benefited. November 2009 saw a rebound in Chinese industrial activity as well as import volumes. Recovery in Chinese output and demand has buoyed the Asian steel markets and fears have turned from the potential long-lasting impact of the financial crisis to the possibility of a glut in supply. This would counteract steel price rises seen since Q209 and could force steelmakers to slash prices yet again. A longer-term concern that strongly permeated this quarter is that renewed lending in Chinese financial markets may cool as the effect of the stimulus package fades, impacting markets such as Taiwan.
As the world’s leading steel producer, China’s attitude towards new capacity is always critical to Taiwanese steelmakers, the wider Asian market and indeed the industry as a whole. However, its approach has continued to be schizophrenic this quarter. A substantial number of new steel mill projects have continued despite the Chinese government’s announcement of a capacity freeze for the next three years. Beijing’s latest effort at averting oversupply appeared just as ineffectual as the government proposed the closure of mills below an annual capacity of 1mn tonnes of crude steel in December 2009. This top-down attempt at consolidating steel production may prove more effective once recovery is in full-swing. In the meantime, the most serious issue on the steelmakers’ agenda is the adverse effect a looming oversupply may have on margins.
Product samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
Taiwan Metals Report Q1 2011
Taiwan Metals Report Q2 2010
Taiwan Metals Report Q4 2010
Taiwan Metals Report Q4 2011
Taiwan Metals Report Q4 2009
Taiwan Metals Report Q1 2012
China Metals Report Q1 2010
China Metals Report Q1 2012
China Metals Report Q1 2011
Japan Metals Report Q1 2011
|
|
|
|
